Stats Canada estimates show less production in wheat, canola

Stats Canada says a July farm survey found farmers are expected to produce less wheat, canola, corn and soybeans this year, but more barley and oats.

The latest spring wheat production estimate is up this year, but durum and winter are down. The estimate currently stands at 2.9 percent from last year at 31.3 million tons.

Adam Pukalo with P.I. Financial in Regina said wheat is on a downward trend when looking at the charts from Minneapolis. The only positive support wheat may have right now is from a small reversal action on corn and soybeans, but the overall picture shows lower numbers.

Canola production estimate is down 9.3 percent to 18.5 million tons. The canola estimate is considered friendly for farm prices, but Statistics Canada has a history of underestimating production.

“I can’t see it become higher than the December report. Producers may want to keep in mind what Stats Can has reported in the past,” stated Pukalo.

Ken Ball, a grain trader with P.I. Financial in Winnipeg, agreed with how the estimate is considered a bit low this time around.

“I think most people are thinking the crop is somewhere near 19 million tons plus or minus a little bit,” said Ball, “They are probably all a little bit bigger than what Stats Can showed.”

Some traders say the estimate for canola is positive for prices, but Ball mentioned how trade issues with China remain a key concern.

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