The latest market outlook from Sask Wheat says the wheat price outlook will remain unclear until the Russian export tax issue is resolved.
Only then will there be any idea on Russian exports and how much extra demand to expect for North American wheat supplies.
The outlook, compiled by Mercantile Consulting Venture, says there are reports of a possible export wheat tax of 70 dollars a ton.
Meantime, Canadian wheat exports last week reached 9.8 million tons for the crop year, 2.5 million tons or 33 percent higher than a year ago.
The biggest wheat export increases are to China and Nigeria.
Agriculture Canada is forecasting Canadian wheat carry out stocks at 5.3 million tons, up from 4.8 million a year ago.
Wheat production in Canada is forecast to drop 2 percent with relatively stable acres but lower yields, with estimated production at 27 million tons.
Wheat exports in the crop year beginning August first are pegged at 20 million tons.
Wheat prices are expected at 7.75 to 8 dollars a bushel in Saskatchewan.
Durum exports so far this crop year are 2.7 million tons, up 17 percent from a year ago.
The biggest gains in this year’s durum sales over last year are to Italy, Morocco, Algeria and Belgium.
Agriculture Canada forecasts the area seeded to durum in Canada will rise 6 percent due to strong prices.
Some bids are emerging at 8.75 a bushel, but the analysis would target 9 dollars a bushel for current crop durum sales.
In the U.S., there was some beneficial precipitation in parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas.
However, extreme dryness continues to plague winter wheat producers in the high and southern plains.
The Sask Wheat report also points to some logistic issues in Russia, with 70 vessels waiting to load at port.