The Saskatchewan Government is looking to grow the province to 1.4 million people by 2030.
However, a group of housing cooperation’s in the province says there won’t be enough housing units to accommodate that growth.
The Saskatchewan Housing Continuum Network comprises the Saskatchewan REALTORS Association, Saskatoon & Region Home Builders’ Association, Regina & Region Home Builders’ Association, Saskatchewan Landlord Association, and Habitat for Humanity.
The network stated that the province needs to build 141,500 housing units to meet the projected population increases in the next eight years.
Saskatchewan REALTORS Association CEO Chris Guérette explains how they came up with that number.
“Working with an economist, we considered two different averaging systems. The per capita housing average from the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) and the current average of housing units produced in Saskatchewan,” she said. “Following the OECD average, we estimate that Saskatchewan needs 141,500 housing units, and if we keep the status quo, the number was 95,500. The OECD average is too lofty and out of sync with local realities, and we argue the current average is insufficient, so we estimate the number is somewhere in between those two.”
Guérette said that it’s a lofty goal for the province.
“Builders here in this province have built just over 98,000 units in the 30 years starting in 1990. We are looking to squeeze that same amount of houses, maybe more, into eight years.”
In those 30 years, the province has averaged 3,266 housing units a year. To meet the 141,500 needed, the province needs to average of 17,687 housing units every year.
Guérette said that if there aren’t enough places to live, the province can’t grow, but prices will also rise.
“If we don’t get the inventory question well-understood and addressed, it will absolutely have an impact on affordability, and you will see an erosion of affordability,” she said. “You can’t have the luxury of choice and affordability if your inventory levels are low. We’ve seen inventory going down for the past three years now, and we’ve also seen prices tick up. We do feel we are at the edge of a cliff, and we have to be very careful with the next couple of years.”
The lack of available homes for sale has become the market’s main issue in Saskatchewan. At the same time, the property types in demand differ across the province.
Regina’s housing inventory is still balanced despite strong sales in the first stages of the pandemic. Saskatoon, on the other hand, has a shortage of single-family homes. The rest of the province has experienced shortages, and benchmark prices continue to rise.
She said in a time when builders need to build quicker, it is taking them longer.
“Builders have to deal with inflationary pressures; interest rates are rising; those are all things that impact how quickly you can build a home. It’s definitely taking longer to build a home today than it did three years ago.”
Guérette said she is optimistic that the province will be able to hit the goal they set out.
“Can we do it? I’m the first one who is going to be optimistic and be able to say with the right players at the table and the teamwork required, we can achieve whatever we can put our minds to, but I do realize this is a very complex issue.”
