Warm start expected for beginning of autumn

Although leaves have already turned yellow and orange in many places and are starting to fall, 7:01 this evening marks the official start of autumn.
Doug Gillham, a meteorologist with The Weather Network, said there’s going to be a warm start to the beginning of autumn.

“Fall is notorious for its wild and changeable weather, but so far it’s a more gentle slide into the season with warmer than normal temperatures, and we expect that to continue deep into October,” said Gillham.

Forecast highs for early next week are close to 30.

“We expect those temperature roller coasters, the temperatures will average out warmer than what we typically see and we are actually going to see that over the next couple of weeks,” he said. “In fact as we look forward to next week, some summer weather returns.”

Apologies to those who may be dreaming of a white Halloween, but it may not happen this year. Even though there are some warm temps coming, he said it’s too early to predict if we’ll have snow at the end of October.

He said they can’t pinpoint the weather on a particular day that far into the future, but you can’t rule out snow. There’s an average of 20 cm of snow at the end of November.

“Even a mild fall doesn’t mean will avoid seeing a taste of the season to come. Whether than happens on Halloween or not, (it’s) much too early to tell. But sooner rather than later, we’re probably going to see some snow,” he said.

But the phenomenon known as La Nina has also formed for the third straight year, meaning we could see a cooler, wetter winter. Gillham said they look at weather indicators top see if it’s an El Nino or La Nina pattern – for the third year.

“What do I mean by La Nina? That’s cooler than normal ocean water temperatures at the equator,” he said. “Believe it or not, that’s a huge driver of the jet stream pattern.”

Another factor is how warm warm the ocean waters are in the northern Pacific Ocean.

“A lot of signals pointing to a continuation of the pattern that we have seen, and that’s a warmer pattern deep into October,” he said. “There are signs that … as we get to the end of fall, not only will we see some colder weather because that’s normal. But that the milder pattern could break down, allowing us to see a typical ending to the season.”

Last year, he said the same patterns showed a mild fall but then a much colder than normal December.

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