REGINA – Welcome, friends, to the start of May and the start of another Cairns on Cinema Summer Blockbuster Preview!
Yes, blockbuster season has now kicked off, as of this past weekend. I had hoped to put something up earlier, but I was swamped with other assignments so I put it off to today. Which in a way is just as well, because this column comes just in time to include President Donald Trump’s latest tariff insanity.
Yes, folks, your favourite U.S. President of all time has topped himself yet again. He has announced he will put 100 per cent tariffs on all movies produced outside the United States.
Trump thinks this move will force motion picture production to relocate back to the United States and hire American workers.
Except, Hollywood doesn’t work this way. Moviemaking is a high-risk endeavour, and getting a movie off the ground is a major undertaking. It is especially tough given the financial woes we are seeing from Paramount, Warner Bros.-Discovery and other studios at the moment. The mood right now in Hollywood is to avoid “taking risks” and going for the “sure thing” – as in, sequels. If there are too many costs associated with making a movie, the studios will simply say “forget it.”
These tariffs will surely sink a few studios and ensure fewer Hollywood movies get made — especially if Canada and the EU respond with reciprocal tariffs, which is a real possibility. And for the few blockbusters that are made, you can expect ticket prices at the cinemas to soar through the roof. And what happens to “foreign films” and even popular movie franchises that are based in other countries? We may never get another James Bond movie made ever again!
Obviously, no one in Hollywood — above or below the line — was consulted on this, and certainly no one here in Canada. This is getting to be a trend. Besides, what the Hollywood crowd would say to Trump is that they don’t want tariffs at all, but rather more tax incentives and especially more from the folks in California. Their state government has been real laggards in providing incentives as of late.
I’ll ought to write a full column later about all this, but suffice it to say this could be the final blockbuster summer season we get in a long long time if these tariffs do go ahead.
Now on to summer movie season, which began this weekend with the release of the new Marvel movie Thunderbolts to the tune of a $76 million domestic opening. Not a bad performance, far better than we got last year from The Fall Guy at $28 million.
Now, the first weekend of May is traditionally the home of Marvel’s first big release of the year, so it’s good to see the tradition revived after taking last year off. But I noticed today, in what appears to be a publicity stunt, that it was announced they are changing the name to “The New Avengers”. And they are changing all the billboards from coast to coast to reflect this.
I am just shaking my head. Who changes a name of a major motion picture just days after it is released? Usually you do thus after the movie has flopped in theatres — and then you use the new name to sell VHS video tapes or DVDs and all that stuff. I don’t get it.
Anyway, I have Thunderbolts, or The New Avengers or whatever it is called now, missing out on finishing in my top five for the summer. Here is what we can expect in terms of when you can expect blockbuster releases— the real contenders for the summer box office title — to be released in the coming weeks:
May 23
This promises to be a highly anticipated duel. Disney’s live action remake of Lilo and Stitch will go up against the eighth and final Mission: Impossible movie starring Tom Cruise, titled Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. The marketing is already in overdrive for both of these flicks
May 30
Of note this weekend, though probably not as likely to do as big a box office, is Karate Kid: Legends featuring the return of Ralph Macchio as well as Jackie Chan.
June 6
This weekend is expected to be dominated by From the World of John Wick: Ballerina.
June 13
Another prime contender to face off against Lilo and Stitch for the “family” audience title this summer is How to Train Your Dragon — again, a live action sequel to an animated hit.
June 20
This weekend marks the premiere for 28 Years Later, a horror sequel to the previous 28 Days Later.
June 27 in USA and Canada, June 25 in the rest of the world
This marks the opening weekend for the much-anticipated F1, featuring Brad Pitt in the title role.
July 2
One of the most anticipated titles of the summer is Jurassic World Rebirth, the latest in the long line of “Jurassic” movies. (I thought the previous movie, Jurassic World Dominion, was supposed to be the finale of this series? I guess not.)
July 11
July 25
Filling out the late July spot is another Marvel entry called Fantastic Four: The First Steps. Based on what we are hearing this could rival Superman to be the top superhero movie of the summer.
August
I expect the August box office to drop off considerably after what we expect to be a massive July, with The Bad Guys 2 expected to face off against The Naked Gun on the weekend of Aug. 1, followed by Freakier Friday on August 8.
There are many, many other releases planned, so check your local listings. But these are the ones that I think will have the biggest splash at the box office.
So I have been checking out the predictions out there for which movies are top contenders and most of the pundits seem to be settling on Jurassic World Rebirth, Superman, and Lilo and Stitch. But then I checked the Fandango rankings for “most anticipated movies” this summer and they have Lilo and Stitch way down there, in a sawoff with How to Train Your Dragon.
My issue with Lilo and Stitch is that it rolls out the exact same weekend as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. Granted, both flicks appeal to much different audiences, but if you were to ask me which flick would win out that weekend I would lean to the latter, since it is the last one with Tom Cruise. But I dunno if it will win the summer. Heck, I predicted the previous Mission: Impossible movie to win the summer a couple of years ago and it ended up losing to the “Barbieheimer” phenomenon that hit theatres not long afterwards.
I also have been struggling between Superman and Fantastic Four for which movie will finish ahead. Personally, I think a lot of people are in the mood to see the superhero flicks this summer, because the major big-name superheroes have been missing for a while.
But it’s not as if either Superman or Fantastic Four franchises have done fabulous business at the cinemas in recent times. They kind of have a lot to prove in my opinion, especially the Fantastic Four franchise. When was the last time there was a good production involving the Fantastic Four? A long time ago (in a galaxy far, far away, perhaps?).
Here is my fearless prediction for the domestic summer box office. In order of finish:
Jurassic World Rebirth $630 million
Superman $460 million
Fantastic Four: The First Steps $420 million
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning $300 million
Lilo and Stitch $290 million
And if you want my sleeper pick: F1. It’s fresh material, people are hyped about it, and a flick about Formula One racing is long overdue.
That is what I see happening at the summer box office. These should do a lot better than my federal election predictions. On second thought, maybe not.
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