OTTAWA — Canada’s economy continued to blow past job forecasts in November but some economists caution against reading too much into a series of strong headline figures.
Statistics Canada said Friday that the economy added 54,000 new positions last month compared with economists’ expectations for a small loss.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent in November, down from 6.9 per cent in October, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. StatCan said there were 26,000 fewer people in the labour market last month, pushing the jobless rate lower.
The economy added 181,000 jobs from September through November. Before then, labour market activity had been relatively cool since January as employers grappled with U.S. tariff uncertainty.
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said the labour force survey can be volatile, but the recent months of job gains have been particularly “perplexing.”
Reports of major layoffs in the manufacturing sector and indications of a sagging labour market in StatCan’s other survey of employment, payrolls and hours have painted a different picture than the monthly figures, he said.
“It’s a very difficult one to try and figure out,” Grantham said.
“We would suggest that the truth kind of lies somewhere in between the headline numbers and some of the underlying details, where the labour market and the economy is starting to improve, but maybe not quite as quickly and dramatically as the headline numbers suggest.”
Grantham said these details in themselves aren’t negative — it’d be hard to argue November’s job figures are showing weakness given the magnitude of the gains — but the growth is more concentrated in part-time work and in particular sectors and demographics rather than being widespread.
StatCan said growth in part-time work, which added 63,000 positions in November, has outpaced gains in full-time employment over the past three months.
Youth aged 15 to 24 also drove employment gains last month after coping with a tough labour market to-date in 2025. StatCan said the demographic added 50,000 jobs in November, coming off a gain of 21,000 positions in October — the first months of job gains for youth since the start of the year.
The health-care and social assistance sector also added the lion’s share of jobs with a gain of 46,000 positions. Modest gains in food and accommodation and the natural resources sectors offset losses in wholesale and retail trade as well as manufacturing.
Average hourly wages rose 3.6 per cent in November, a tick higher than in October.
BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients Friday that some of the details are less impressive, but the recent job gains are still solid by historical metrics.
“Put it this way, the last time we saw a six-tick drop in the unemployment rate in a two-month span (aside from the wildness around COVID) was during the last tech boom in 1999,” Porter said.
StatCan said that, of those who were unemployed in October, 19.6 per cent secured a job in November. This job-finding rate was up slightly compared to the same months a year ago, which the agency said suggested an easier time finding work.
TD senior economist Andrew Hencic said in a note that the unemployment rate remains elevated despite the recent momentum in the labour market.
“While this is an improvement, there is still room for recovery,” he said.
The November job figures mark the final major data release before the Bank of Canada is set to make its final interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday.
The central bank signalled after cutting its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent in October that it may be finished with further adjustments as long as incoming economic data doesn’t end up significantly weaker.
Porter said that three months of robust job gains, coupled with a surprise 2.6 per cent annualized jump in real GDP for the third quarter, should quash “any lingering prospect of a near-term Bank of Canada rate cut.”
Financial markets placed odds of a rate hold on Dec. 10 at nearly 93 per cent as of Friday afternoon, up from roughly 90 per cent heading into the jobs report, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
Grantham said that even with caveats attached to recent data, the economy has “weathered the storm” in 2025 — performing better than forecasters initially feared when U.S. tariffs and trade disruptions began in April.
The relative strength in the labour market and real GDP heading into the end of the year support his call for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold next week and through 2026.
“As we stand right now … that justifies the Bank of Canada stating that interest rates are maybe low enough to help the economy recover,” Grantham said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 5, 2025.
Craig Lord, The Canadian Press
