REGINA – The fall sitting of the Saskatchewan Legislature focused on a number of different topics ranging from health to public safety, but always looming in the background was the issue of tariffs and trade.
There was already concern about China’s tariffs on canola, but it was during the session that the India tariffs on yellow peas were imposed. Premier Scott Moe met with India officials at various times throughout the session, and also met with American cabinet officials in Washington D.C. over the continued uncertainty with tariffs from the USA.
In speaking to reporters at the end of the final day of the sitting before the winter break, Premier Moe acknowledged the trade issue was creating real uncertainty including impacts to the budget.
“We're seeing some real economic instability across Canada and I've said that you're seeing that instability start to show up in the bottom lines of provincial budgets as well as the federal budget, I would say more recently as well. And so we need to work together as Canadians to ensure that we are, you know, defending the Canadian economy.”
To illustrate how unstable it is, Moe pointed to tariffs from their three largest markets, the USA, China and India. “And so those discussions, we're supporting our federal government in finding our way through all of those trade negotiations so that we can reduce or eliminate the tariffs in each of those markets.”
Adding to the uncertainty were the developments just this week, with Moe pointing to “the more recent comments of President (Donald) Trump with respect to possibly letting USMCA time out or what that might be.”
Moe said that what they are seeing from his most recent visit to the United States is “a focus on, maybe not sector by sector, but on the various more specific industries that have a trade relationship with the United States of America.”
He said when it comes to providing their share of North American energy and food security, Saskatchewan stands “quite well in that space and in that negotiating space. That doesn't for a moment say that we aren't in many ways impacted by the flux and the uncertainty that is being created with the sector by sector tariffs that are in place today, as well as the threat of removing the USMCA.”
Moe added that more “broadly across Canada, including in Saskatchewan, to remove USMCA would be a significant blow to the Canadian economy. But not just the Canadian economy, it would be a significant blow to the American economy, thereby weakening our economic strength in North America to make the very investments that are keeping our continent safe and are keeping the opportunities for North Americans front and centre moving forward.”
“And so it would be our true hope, and we will be working hard, utilizing the contacts that we have as a province to support our federal government to ensure that that actually does not occur."
During his remarks to reports Moe once again pointed to the improved tone and relations with the federal government and continued to pledge his governments cooperation.
Moe said they would “do our level best to support the federal government and, in particular, support Prime Minister (Mark) Carney in getting to a successful outcome in those trade negotiations.”
He said they were in a situation where if “the Prime Minister wins in those negotiations and gets Canada to a good place, that's good for Saskatchewan.” He said they were “very much aligned” on the effort in improving trade relations between Canada and export markets.
Specifically on the issue of canola and yellow pea tariffs, Moe was asked when we might see action or change in that situation.
“Well, I'd say first and foremost, what we'd like to see is action happening now, like this afternoon would be timely,” Moe said.
“That being said, in these global relations, it unfortunately does take some time. I am positive, or bullish, I would say, that we are going to get to a better place in all three of those markets… Sooner rather than later is our hope, and that's what we're working towards. However, it's going to be a number of weeks, if not a few months yet, before I think we find trade peace in those three larger markets. That being said, things change pretty quickly in the last number of months, and that could happen as well.”
Financial picture impacted by trade situation, says Moe
Premier Moe also had comments on the financial picture of the province and the midyear forecast of a $427 million deficit. But while Moe noted that they had the second lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the nation, and the lowest deficit per capita and the lowest deficit in relation to the GDP compared to other provinces, the trade environment had an impact.
“We're in a very trying time economically. Saskatchewan very much is an export-focused province with the highest level of export value per capita of anywhere across the nation. We're very proud of what we have achieved in that space and we are going to add to that in the years ahead. That being said, the very tariff-ridden global trade environment that we're in right now is impacting our Saskatchewan economy. It is impacting the Canadian economy. We need to support our government in finding a path through that, but these are challenging economic times. We are going to have to tighten our belt on the investment and the spending side. We are going to have to work with our federal government to ensure that we can provide some certainty in that international space where we can, but we're seeing this challenge across the nation.”
