Thousands of glaciers across Canada could be saved from total extinction by the end of the century if humanity can bend the curve on global warming, a new global study suggested while offering a grim outlook on one of the world’s icons of changing climate.
The study published Monday in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change estimates almost 80 per cent of glaciers worldwide are set to vanish by 2100 at the planet’s current warming trajectory of around 2.7 degrees above pre-industrial average. That drops to 63 per cent at two degrees, or about 34,000 fewer glaciers wiped out completely.
The paper introduced the term “peak glacier extinction” to describe the year when the largest numbers of glaciers are expected to disappear between now and the end of the century.
At 1.5 degrees of warming, about 2,000 glaciers disappear every year peaking around 2041. At four degrees, the peak shifts to the mid-2050s and intensifies to around 4,000 glaciers per year as global warming melts away larger glaciers.
“This peak loss of individual glaciers is more than a numerical milestone: it marks a turning point with profound implications for ecosystems, water resources and cultural heritage,” read the study, led by a team out of ETH Zurich, a Swiss university.
“As mourning rituals, memorials and glacier graveyards emerge, glacier loss turns from a scientific concern into a human story of vanishing landscapes, fading traditions and disrupted daily routines.”
Climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has already taken a massive chunk out the world’s glaciers. A study published earlier this year estimated glaciers have lost about 6.5 trillion tonnes of ice since the early 2000s, with those losses rapidly accelerating in recent years.
The latest study suggests Canada’s southern Arctic could lose 34 per cent of its glaciers by the end of the century under 1.5 degrees of warming, compared to up to 60 per cent if the world continues on its trajectory of around 2.7 degrees. On that current path, the vast majority of glaciers in Western Canada and the United States would be wiped out.
At a catastrophic four degrees of warming, virtually all the glaciers in Western Canada and the United States would be wiped out, along with 81 per cent of those in the southern Arctic.
The researchers say other studies have often focused on the important work of estimating the loss of glacier mass and area as the planet warms. Those studies can help illustrate the dramatic risks of rising sea levels and water scarcity issues for the many communities who depend on glacier meltwater.
One 2023 study in the journal Science estimated glaciers, excluding Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, could lose a quarter of their mass under 1.5 degrees of warming or up to two-thirds under four degrees, translating to sea-level rises between 90 to 150 millimetres, respectively. A lot of that water is held in a few very large glaciers that could still persist until the end of the century.
The researchers behind the latest study say they wanted to place the focus on sheer number of glaciers facing extinction.
“They’re really icons of climate change,” said Harry Zekollari, a co-author and glaciologist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, a university in the Belgian capital.
“If you go to someone, you talk to them in the streets about the fact that the temperatures have risen by two degrees, it’s really difficult to picture. But glaciers, they’re so visual.”
The researchers simulated the evolution of more than 200,000 glaciers, excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, reflected in the world’s most comprehensive glacier database. Using three different models, they estimated the moment each of those glaciers would become too small to classify as a glacier under four different warming scenarios: 1.5 degrees, two degrees, 2.7 degrees and four degrees.
Recent estimates suggest the world is on pace to warm by roughly 2.7 degrees if countries implement their current climate policies – by no means guaranteed. That’s well above the international targets to keep warming below two degrees and aim for 1.5, to avoid some of the most catastrophic and irreversible climate impacts.
Recent studies have suggested the 1.5-degree target could be breached within the decade, though scientists broadly insist every fraction of a degree will be important to avoid worsening climate impacts.
In Canada’s southern Arctic, 60 per cent of the region’s 7,406 glaciers would be wiped out by the end of the century if the world continues at its current pace. If warming is kept to two degrees, it would save an estimated 1,362 glaciers from total extinction. At 1.5 degrees, another 575 glaciers on top of that would stay above the extinction threshold.
Averaged across warming scenarios, the region would lose about 78 glaciers at its peak extinction year in 2081.
In Western Canada and the United States, the outlook is far worse.
Of the region’s 17,723 glaciers, 96 per cent could disappear at the world’s current trajectory. That comes down to 82 per cent at two degrees, or 75 per cent at 1.5 degrees.
At four degrees of warming, only 101 glaciers in the region are left, a 99 per cent loss, the study suggests.
In the northern Arctic, the projected losses are stark though less dramatic than in the south. At the world’s current trajectory, about 30 per cent of the region’s 4,500 glaciers would vanish, compared to 23 per cent and 19 per cent if warming is kept at two degrees or 1.5 degrees, respectively.
One of those glaciers under threat is the Ausuiktuq Glacier on the southern tip of Ellesmere Island. Ausuiktuq, meaning the place that never thaws, turns out to be one of the most rapidly shrinking glaciers across the High Arctic, says research scientist David Burgess with the Geological Survey of Canada.
The Inuit hamlet at the base of the glacier historically used it as a water supply until it was replaced by meltwater from mountain snow in the 1980s. The glacier “fondly valued by the community” is harder to access by foot and snowmobile now too because as it retreats further up the mountain, its slope steepens, making it harder for residents to use it to travel to the neighbouring valley, said Burgess.
Recent estimates suggest it’s about half the size it was in 1959.
“The significance is huge,” Burgess said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 15, 2025.
Jordan Omstead, The Canadian Press
