More soybeans expected to be planted, says USDA Ag Outlook

The U.S Department of Agriculture is projecting farmers will be seeding more soybeans and less corn in 2026.

 

The USDA issued its first grains and oilseeds outlook for the year at the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia Thursday.

 

The forecast calls for 94 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans. If that occurs, corn would be down 4.8 million acres from last year, while soybeans would increase 3.8 million acres in 2026.

 

Along with lower planted acreage, USDA's initial look at the 2026 corn crop also lowers the projected corn yield 3.5 bushels to 183 bushels per acre (bpa).

Production would decline about 7 per cent from the record 2025-26 crop. Still, the new crop estimate would come in as the second largest, just behind last year's crop.

 

The USDA projects ethanol use would remain steady.

 

Exports would decline from 3.3 billion bushels b to 3.1 billion bushels due to more competition from South America and modest global demand growth.

 

Moving to soybean, the projected average yield is 53 bushels an acre — the same as the 2025-26 crop. The USDA says the rise in soybean area is reflecting its stronger profitability compared to other crops.

 

Domestic soybean crush will continue to rise with the USDA saying federal and state biofuel policies will drive higher demand for soybean oil.

 

Soybean exports are expected to improve following the lowest marketing year for the crop in 13 years.

 

Total US wheat acreage is expected to decline slightly, about 300,000 acres, down to 45 million acres for 2026-27.

 

USDA projects wheat yields for 2026-27 will decline 2.5 bushels an acre, to come in at 50.8 bushels per acre.

 

 

It could be tough sledding for Canadian trade negotiators when the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement is reviewed this summer.

Trade was the main focus of a panel discussion at the US Department of Agriculture Ag Outlook Forum.

"Access to the U.S. market should not be considered a given or a right. And a lot of our trading partners in the past have felt that they could treat American companies and American farmers as badly as they wanted, and they would still have access to our market." said Julie Callahan, the chief agriculture trade negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. "And our market is a very valuable, lucrative market for other countries to ship products. Now we have a President that's willing to police that market and say, if you're not treating our farmers appropriately, you're going to have consequences."

A sore point for the United States and President Trump is Canada's supply managed sector, particularly dairy.

 

(With files from Neil Billinger, CJWW)