REGINA – March 18 is Provincial Budget Day in Saskatchewan and there are still many questions and many answers that are still unknown about what the budget will contain.
There have been many predictions about what the state of Saskatchewan finances will be, but we will not know for sure until Finance Minister Jim Reiter stands in the Assembly and delivers that budget that afternoon.
Until then, the guessing game of what is in or not in the budget continues. Here is a summary of what we might expect, based on what we know already.
The backdrop: Last year’s budget
A year ago, Finance Minister Reiter’s first budget raised eyebrows when it projected a $12 million surplus, defying predictions from the opposition New Democrats of a large deficit. The NDP critic Trent Wotherspoon didn’t believe the numbers and at media event proceeded to put the entire budget in the shredder.
But the $12 million surplus did not hold up, in part due to costs from the devastating wildfires in northern Saskatchewan as well as removal of the federal carbon tax on customer bills announced last year. There were other economic pressures as well, due to the tariff situation.
The current situation
In the midyear update in November, Reiter pointed to those factors as he announced a $427 million deficit.
“Obviously, we’d like to be in a balanced situation,” Reiter said at the time. “But I have to be realistic, too. There’s not a balanced budget across the country right now because of economic headwinds.”
But as the 2026-27 budget approached, speculation ran rampant that the deficit would go even higher after the government issued spending warrants of $654 million on Feb. 13. Of that, $338 million of that went to the Ministry of Health.
Opposition Leader Carla Beck slammed the numbers and predicted a $1 billion deficit, and demanded that the third-quarter numbers be immediately released. It now looks like those Q3 numbers will be released on Budget day, as has been customary in recent years.
Other provinces weigh in with deficits
More speculation on the Saskatchewan budget came amid word of deficit budgets handed down in other provinces, painting a grim financial picture across Canada.
Most shocking was perhaps in British Columbia, which reported a $13.3 billion deficit and some major tax increases.
Alberta’s budget posted a $9.4 billion deficit. In a provincial address prior to that budget, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pointed to pressures from immigration and said there would be a referendum in October on how the province should deal with the issue.
The budgets from other provinces have only heightened the speculation on what the Saskatchewan budget will contain.
What the Saskatchewan government has already signalled
In the past few weeks, the Sask Party government has signalled that a deficit budget is coming on March 18, and have also signalled what they plan to do with the budget.
On Feb. 25 in Regina, Moe pointed to a challenging budget, just days after telling reporters in Saskatoon a deficit was on the way.
He pointed to “a challenging time across Canada,” and said there are “revenue challenges due to the trade uncertainty, market uncertainty around the world … we experienced a year of pretty significant agricultural tariffs on our second-largest market, being China. And that, I think, starts to show up definitely on the revenue line at the farm gate, and at the provincial government level as well.” But he said Saskatchewan's economy “is as resilient, or likely more resilient, than many other provinces.”
Last Wednesday, March 11, Moe spoke to SARM delegates and confirmed a deficit was coming.
“There’s going to be a deficit. It’s larger than I want. Our goal is zero as a government.”
Moe told delegates that in the immediate term, “we made the choice to protect services, in particular healthcare service.”
He pointed to the Patients First health care plan announced two days earlier, which pledged to expand access to a doctor, expanded nurse practitioner services and more virtual care.
Moe also urged people to compare the provinces and their deficits on a “per capita” basis. He pointed to British Columbia’s massive deficit and said it amounted to $2,340 per person this year, even after raising taxes, including the PST.
“That’s not the approach we’re taking in Saskatchewan. I can assure you that we are nowhere near to that level of being in the ditch.”
One wrinkle thrown into the mix in the last several days has been the war in Iran. That has resulted in skyrocketing impacts on the price of oil due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, something that could help revenues to offset the government expenses.
Finance Minister Reiter was asked about it March 2. He acknowledged the higher resource prices would bring more revenue in for the province, but “on the flipside of that, you’re going to see, you’ve seen recently the Canadian dollar is stronger now. That seems kind of opposite of what you’d expect, but that actually costs us money in the provincial treasury. So this happens all the time — budget, of course, is a snapshot in time, making the best that you can at that point in time.”
Reinter has also acknowledged the looming deficit, saying there “are economic headwinds that every province in this country is facing. I don’t think you’ll see a balanced budget in the country this year… Having said that, we are positioned better than anyone fiscally. We have the best credit rating in the country, we have the second best net debt to GDP in the country. So these are difficult times but we’ll get through it.”
What to look for in the budget
With a deficit budget clearly on the way based on these government comments, there are a number of things to look for in the budget, including the following:
How much is the deficit going to be and could it reach the $1 billion figure that Opposition politicians have suggested it could reach? Or could surprises be in store with a better-than-expected number?
Also, what is the impact on the debt going to be? And how are resource revenues shaping up, especially given the situation in the Gulf?
How much is the spend in health care, and where are those dollars to be allocated? Will those dollars make a dent in addressing the issues seen such as overcrowded emergency rooms? Also, what is in store for capital spending and could we see more health care facilities or hospitals greenlighted?
How much is the spend in education? Could we see more schools be greenlit to go ahead?
What will we see in terms of highway construction in 2026?
Will we see any tax increases in the 2026 budget? What about funding cuts?
The third quarter financials are likely to be released as well on March 18 — what do those mean from a financial perspective?
These and many other questions await answers on March 18 on Budget Day.
