OTTAWA — Byelection voters in Toronto and Montreal will soon decide whether Prime Minister Mark Carney will govern with a majority in the House of Commons.
Carney is widely expected to clinch the majority, since the two Toronto ridings are considered safe Liberal seats.
Heading into the byelections, the Liberals stand at 171 seats and need 172 MPs for a simple majority.
But a variety of House of Commons rules and traditions would still let the opposition block or slow the government’s agenda at 172 seats, so the real figure the Liberals are after is 173.
The key ingredient that now makes a majority possible is the addition of five opposition MPs who crossed the floor in recent months, bolstering the Liberal seat count.
Speculation about more floor crossers to come has been rampant on Parliament Hill.
Conservative MP Billy Morin told The Canadian Press ahead of a press conference Monday morning the Liberals were trying to “poach” him. He later said he is “proud to be a part of a strong opposition.”
Other Conservative MPs have posted on social media in recent days to say they would be remaining in the Tory caucus.
Liberal MP Wayne Long denied that the party was trying to poach Morin. When asked if he’s expecting more Conservative floor crossers, Long replied, “Not that I’m aware of, no.”
Politics watchers will be fixated on the battleground in Quebec. The byelection race in the Montreal suburb of Terrebonne has been a knock-down, drag-out fight between the Bloc Québécois and the governing party.
The riding saw nearly 20 per cent voter turnout in the advance polls.
Liberals dispatched staffers and virtually all of their Quebec ministers — plus the prime minister himself — to stump for local candidate Tatiana Auguste.
Liberal MP Kody Blois said Monday his party is “competitive” there and has been “throwing everything we have” at the riding, which they won a year ago by just one vote.
In February, the Supreme Court of Canada annulled the Terrebonne result due to a clerical error on the return address for some mail-in ballots.
The local Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, who represented the seat for the Bloc between 2021 and 2025, said she fought hard to retake the riding, and was frequently congratulated at the doorstep for forcing the byelection
“We’ve been doing a great campaign … convincing citizens one-by-one,” she said. “We’re looking forward to having, hopefully, a clear result.”
Health Minister Marjorie Michel, who was among the top Liberals who helped out in the longtime Bloc riding, said the Liberals won the last general election in a wave.
But she said there’s a good chance the Liberals will hold it after campaigning hard at a time when the government enjoys high levels of approval.
“A lot of people are talking about a majority, et cetera, but I would tell you in that specific election, it’s a local door-to-door election,” she said. “It’s a battle.”
The two other byelections are in Toronto and were called to replace retiring Liberal MPs Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. They’re expected to stay Liberal and push the party into a majority in the House of Commons.
The floor crossings that padded the government’s numbers began back in November, with Nova Scotia MP Chris D’Entremont leaving the Conservatives for the Liberals.
He was followed by Toronto-area MP Michael Ma in December and Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux in February. Lori Idlout, the lone Nunavut MP, left the NDP for the government benches in March.
The most recent addition is Marilyn Gladu, a four-term Ontario Conservative MP whose defection raised eyebrows among Canada’s political class because she was widely seen as a staunch Conservative.
The Liberals need to reach 173 seats to advance their political agenda unimpeded because the House Speaker only votes under certain conditions.
Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, a Quebec Liberal, only votes to break a tie. In cases where the Speaker votes, they historically vote to maintain the status quo in the spirit of neutrality.
This means the Speaker is unlikely to vote in favour of new legislation, but would support the government on a confidence vote.
If the Liberals secure a majority, they would also be able to change the standing orders of the House to give them control of committees.
The Bloc currently has the deciding vote on committees, with the Liberals and Conservatives having the same number of voting members.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 13, 2026.
— With files from Alessia Passafiume, David Baxter and Craig Lord
Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press
