Rising beef prices are continuing to outpace other grocery items in Canada, but industry analysts say retailers are still relying on beef to draw shoppers through the door.
New analysis from market expert Kevin Grier, using Statistics Canada consumer price index data and grocery flyer trends, shows beef remains a central feature in stores despite mounting cost pressures.
Food prices overall increased 4.4 per cent year over year in March, with beef leading the way at nearly 13 per cent. Pork and chicken also rose, but at a slower pace, with increases ranging between six and eight per cent for pork and about 7.5 per cent for chicken.
The longer-term trend tells a sharper story. Since early 2021, overall inflation has climbed about 20 per cent, while consumer beef prices have surged 64 per cent.
Much of that pressure is coming from the wholesale market.
Canadian beef prices closely follow those in the United States and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Choice beef cutout averaged about C$515 in the first quarter of 2026. That is up from roughly C$290 during the same period in 2021, marking a 77 per cent increase in costs for grocers.
Even with those increases, retail beef prices have not fully caught up. Data suggests consumer pricing tends to lag wholesale costs by about three months, suggesting the likelihood of additional increases in the coming months.
Despite that, beef continues to dominate grocery advertising. Front-page flyer prices show beef prices up 52 per cent since 2021. That is lower than the overall beef inflation rate, indicating retailers are absorbing part of the higher costs to remain competitive.
Pork and chicken have seen smaller increases in those same flyers, rising about 12 per cent and 40 per cent respectively, making them more attractive options for cost-conscious shoppers.
Still, beef’s presence in grocery marketing has barely shifted. Its share of featured meat items on front-page flyers has dipped only slightly, from 34 per cent in 2021 to 31 per cent in 2026, while the frequency of beef promotions has declined by just one percentage point.
Analysts say that reflects beef’s continued role as a key traffic driver for grocery stores, even as affordability becomes a growing concern for consumers.
For households, the trend means grocery bills are likely to remain under pressure, particularly for those who continue to prioritize beef in their shopping habits.
With wholesale costs still elevated, further increases at the checkout counter are expected through the second quarter of the year.
