REGINA – A new Angus Reid poll out this past week is showing broad support for pipeline projects in this country.
According to their online survey conducted from July 10 to 14 of 2,649 people across the country, it found 63 per cent support for the much discussed proposed new pipeline from Alberta to B.C., while 55 per cent supported the more recent announcement from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford for a proposed Northern Shield pipeline from Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario.
The institute found that the main reasons driving the support for the Alberta-to-B.C pipeline are economic. 55 per cent pointed to diversifying Canada’s oil markets away from the U.S. while 51 per cent pointed to the general importance of oil to Canada’s economy. As well, 45 per cent believed the pipeline would mean more jobs.
But the survey also reports that only about half of Canadians say they have truly made up their minds on the projects. Angus Reid said that for the Alberta to B.C. pipeline, 27 per cent say their support for the project is immovable but 33 per cent say they currently support the project, but could be convinced otherwise.
Among the 21 per cent opposed, it splits 11-10 between those who made up their minds and those who could be convinced to support the pipeline.
As well, 41 per cent say Canada should be investing in renewable energy instead, while 34 per cent worry that Canadians may not see an economic benefit that would outweigh the cost of construction along the Trans Mountain corridor.
Jon Roe, Senior Research Associate at the Angus Reid Institute, said it was those underlying factors beyond the support for the pipelines that were most interesting about the poll results.
“What's interesting about this poll is that we kind of decided to take a look and see how firm that support was,” said Roe, “whether or not Canadians said ‘okay, yeah, I support the pipeline, but maybe I'm open to changing my mind,’ or ‘I oppose the pipeline, and I'm very firmly entrenched in that opposition.’ And overall, Canadians… are somewhat split between saying, yeah, I'm open to change my mind on this pipeline,versus saying, 'yeah, my mind is made up about it.’”
He said the arguments pushing Canadians towards supporting the pipeline “are very economic in nature,” pointing to helping sell Canada’s oil outside the USA, or the ability to create more jobs.
“Those are kind of the arguments right now that Canadians are looking at, saying, yeah, those are really compelling reasons to build the pipeline,” said Roe.
On the other side of it, it's environmental issues that are “kind of maybe giving Canadians a bit more pause,” or more likely to “have them oppose the pipeline.”
Not surprisingly, there are differences in the levels of support for a pipeline depending on the region of the country. Roe noted that Saskatchewan and Alberta see the highest levels of support, with three-quarters of respondents in favour in both provinces.
It is somewhat lower in Manitoba at 58 per cent, and lowest in Quebec where half support the pipeline and 31 per cent are opposed.
But Roe notes that “even in Quebec, and it's kind of true across the country, support is higher than opposition.”
Even in British Columbia, which has seen some opposition to pipeline projects, the poll found 62 per cent support for the new pipeline project proposed by Alberta, with 40 per cent saying the fact that the new pipeline will instead follow the existing Trans Mountain path is a compelling reason to support it.
As for why support for the pipeline to BC was higher than the proposed route to Ontario, Roe noted the latter project “seemed like it hadn't really been on the radar” of most people.
When they asked if Canadians had heard of that project, “only 41 per cent say they hadn't heard of it,” which compared to only eight per cent who hadn’t heard of Alberta to B.C. pipeline.
“There's a lot less knowledge about it, and people are following that story a little bit less closely.”
Interestingly, with all the separatism talk coming out of Alberta lately, the need for national unity is not the biggest factor driving support for pipelines.
“Yeah, that is one of the interesting findings from this poll, I'd say, is that when we ask Canadians of compelling reasons in favour of building the pipeline, only 13 per cent say this is a project that will help boost national unity,” Roe said.
He acknowledged a lot of the discussion around the pipeline is to address some of Alberta's concerns with Confederation. But when they ask Canadians if this was a good reason to build the pipeline, he said Canadians are “more likely to say those economic reasons are the reasons why it's compelling to build the pipeline and not necessarily improve national unity.”
Even in Alberta, he said, only 16 per cent say addressing national unity is a good reason to build this Alberta-BC pipeline.
“I think it kind of speaks maybe that, that the economic arguments are, are just much more compelling to Canadians, uh, than, than that whole national unity piece.”
As for what policy makers and government leaders should read into the poll results, Roe said he thought it “really just speaks to the level of economic concern that Canadians have,” noting a shift over the past couple of years when it comes to the trade-off between economic concerns versus the environment.
Roe noted that around 2018, when there was more opposition to pipelines, “more Canadians were saying, yeah, you know what… environmental concerns should take the priority, that should be the primary concern.”
“Now it's more about the economy. More Canadians are saying that ‘yeah, you know what, we should be concerned about developing the economy more so than protecting the environment.’… I think what the takeaway is, is that that's kind of been the shift in the conversation, and while we're seeing Canadians more likely to support this pipeline than not, is that there are concerns about the economy. They want to see more jobs. They want to see the economy built.”
