Wheat Market Outlook – August 24, 2026
Global
- Wheat markets remain firmer over the past week, although the rally has slowed as North American harvest advances. September Minneapolis spring wheat is up approximately 3.0 per cent over five sessions to $6.96/bu, Chicago wheat is up 2.9 per cent to $6.84/bu and Kansas City wheat is up 1.3 per cent to $7.54/bu. The market continues to carry additional risk premium around Black Sea trade and tightening supplies among major exporters, while generally respectable early U.S. spring wheat harvest results have limited further upside.
- The global wheat outlook has tightened, but the bigger issue is where available wheat is sitting in the globe and not an outright shortage. According to the latest International Grains Council report, world wheat production is now forecast near 817 MMT versus consumption of roughly 826 MMT, implying a modest drawdown in inventories. Also, stocks held by the major exporters are expected to fall approximately 17 per cent year-over-year. Production is lower across most major exporting regions, including Canada, the U.S., EU, Australia and Argentina. This leaves the international market more exposed to production or logistics problems even though headline global stocks remain relatively comfortable.
- Stronger crops in several importing regions are providing an offset. North African wheat production is expected to increase more than 30 per cent while Turkey is also harvesting a much larger crop. As a result, global trade is forecast to decline roughly 6 per cent this year. The market therefore has less exportable wheat available, but several major buyers also need less wheat, helping explain why futures have strengthened without moving into a full supply-driven rally.
- Black Sea logistics remain the largest immediate upside risk. Attacks on commercial vessels and port infrastructure continue to disrupt Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments during what would normally be a major export period. Russia and Ukraine are attempting to move grain through alternative routes, but these options have less capacity and higher costs. There was also little progress toward a shipping ceasefire over the weekend, keeping uncertainty elevated entering this week.
- Current estimates have Russian wheat exports reduced to around 45 MMT and Ukrainian exports near 14 MMT. However, the market has not yet seen a major rush by traditional Black Sea buyers toward Canadian, U.S. or European wheat. Some buyers are instead delaying purchases or being carried by more supplies on their own crops. How long the disruption lasts is therefore more important than the lost shipments to date. A quick normalization could return significant supply to the market, while a months-long disruption would increasingly force buyers toward alternative origins.
- Europe and Australia remain secondary production risks. France’s wheat crop is estimated at 31.9 MMT, down 4 per cent from last year, although early quality has generally been good. French durum production is much smaller at 1.1 MMT, down from 1.3 MMT last year, but quality is also reported as good. European wheat demand could receive some support from the region’s sharply smaller corn crop, which may increase wheat feeding this season.
- Australia also remains worth watching as crops progress. Current wheat estimates range around 27 MMT, while dryness in parts of Western Australia has reduced production expectations. The next ABARES crop report on Sept. 1, 2026, will be an important update.
Canada
- Western Canadian harvest remains too early to confirm current production expectations. Saskatchewan was only 4 per cent harvested as of Aug. 17, 2026, compared with the five-year average of 15 per cent. Peas were 18 per cent complete, lentils 13 per cent and barley 5 per cent, while only 1 per cent of both spring wheat and durum had been harvested. Producers remain focused primarily on getting peas, lentils and barley off, although Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and durum should begin making more progress this week.
- The next one to two weeks will be much more important for the wheat market as actual Canadian yields, protein and grade begin replacing crop-condition estimates. Hotter and drier July weather trimmed some yield expectations, but earlier moisture was generally favourable and crops across parts of Saskatchewan maintained strong yield potential. At this stage, weather is becoming more important for harvest access and maintaining grain quality than for adding yield potential.
- Durum remains a different story from spring wheat, with weaker global import demand limiting the upside despite anticipated smaller crops among the major exporters. World durum production is forecast around 38.9 MMT (38.2 last year, 36.9 year prior), while Canada is currently estimated near 6.3 MMT, down approximately 11 per cent from last year, and U.S. production near 1.8 MMT, down 23 per cent. EU production is also lower.
- The offset is substantially improved production in traditional importing regions. According to the latest IGC report, Morocco’s crop is expected to have doubled to 2.0 MMT vs 1 MMT last year, Algeria is forecast up 34 per cent and Turkey up 21 per cent. Consequently, world durum trade is expected to fall to 8.3 MMT, the lowest in five years. Global ending stocks are forecast at 9.6 MMT, although stocks among the major exporters remain much tighter at only 2.7 MMT. This leaves the durum market well supplied overall, but potentially more sensitive to Canadian or U.S. quality problems than the headline global stocks figure suggests.
- Durum prices have held up reasonably well despite softer demand, with Canadian St. Lawrence FOB values recently assessed around USD $312/t, up USD $12/t over the past month. For Canadian durum, the next major market signal will likely come from actual Prairie yield and quality results rather than changes in global demand.
U.S.
- Spring wheat is providing generally respectable results so far. Approximately 41 per cent of the U.S. HRS crop was harvested as of Aug. 16, 2026, ahead of the five-year average of 34 per cent. Yields have generally been average to above average outside the driest areas, while protein has commonly ranged from 14 per cent to 16 per cent. Test weights have been somewhat more variable. These results have helped limit upside in Minneapolis despite the increasingly supportive global export picture.
- U.S. durum harvest is also advancing, with North Dakota around 23 per cent complete and Montana 27 per cent. Early yields remain variable, but protein has generally been good. More representative quality data should become available as harvest moves deeper into North Dakota and Montana.
- The Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up in the United States last week and provided some support to corn while leaving a more mixed outlook for soybeans. Scouts found the U.S. corn crop generally less impressive than its appearance suggested, with lower ear populations, shorter grain length and weather-related variability across portions of the Corn Belt. Pro Farmer ultimately estimated the national corn yield at 173.2 bu/ac, well below USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bu/ac. Soybean potential was more encouraging, particularly across Iowa and Minnesota, although results remain dependent on late-season weather and pod fill. Pro Farmer estimates the national soybean yield at 53.3 bu/ac, slightly above USDA’s 52.7 bu/ac forecast. Overall, the tour was supportive for corn by as it came in below USDA’s yield estimate, while soybeans continue to carry relatively strong yield potential if finishing weather remains favourable.
Market Outlook – Wheat
Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone as tightening supplies among major exporters and continued disruption to Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping provide support. The latest IGC outlook points to smaller crops across Canada, the U.S., Europe and Australia, while major exporter wheat stocks are expected to fall sharply year-over-year. This is being partly offset by larger crops in North Africa and Turkey. In North America, early U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable, while Canadian harvest remains in the early stages with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley. HRS wheat and durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week, making Canadian yield, protein and quality results increasingly important. Near-term direction will largely depend on whether Black Sea disruptions persist and whether Canadian harvest results confirm current production expectations, with advancing harvest pressure likely to limit upside if both develop favourably.
Market Outlook – Durum
Durum markets remain relatively rangebound, with tighter North American production being offset by larger crops and weaker import demand anticipated across North Africa and Turkey. IGC now forecasts global durum production at 38.9 MMT, down 0.6 MMT from July, including 6.3 MMT in Canada and 1.8 MMT in the U.S., both lower year-over-year. However, improved crops in Morocco, Algeria and Turkey are expected to reduce global trade the lowest in five years, limiting the need for aggressive importer buying. Western Canadian harvest remains in the very early stages, with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley, but durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week. Yield, protein, test weight and grade distribution will become increasingly important, particularly as major-exporter durum stocks remain relatively tight despite comfortable global inventories. Disappointing Canadian yields or quality could strengthen premiums, while a solid Prairie harvest combined with subdued North African demand would likely keep prices contained for the time being.
(Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission news release)
