REGINA, Sask. — The Saskatchewan Rate Review Panel has recommended that the provincial government confirm SaskPower's 3.9 per cent rate increase for 2026, but is holding off for now on a recommendation for what could be an even steeper-than-expected increase for 2027.
In a statement, the panel recommended the provincial government confirm SaskPower’s interim 3.9 per cent system-average rate increase that took effect on Feb. 1 of this year. It said it is deferring its recommendation on the application for a similar 3.9 per cent increase slated for Feb. 1, 2027, until SaskPower provides updated financial information later this year.
The question seems to be not whether that 3.9 per cent increase will go ahead, but whether it will go even higher than was in the original application. The Rate Review Panel is advising ratepayers to "be prepared for the possibility that the final system-average increase could be approximately 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points higher than SaskPower’s proposed 3.9 per cent," according to its news release.
On the 2026 increase, the panel said it found SaskPower is facing "significant financial and operating pressures, including an expanding capital program, increasing operating costs, higher fuel and purchased power costs, declining export revenue and uncertainty surrounding future carbon obligations."
It pointed to SaskPower’s revised mid-application forecast of an operating loss of $187 million for 2025-26, compared to a $147 million loss in its original application. SaskPower’s debt ratio is also forecast to remain above its long-term target range, while its return on equity remains below its long-term target.
As for 2027's increase, the panel says SaskPower must provide updated financial statements and information by Nov. 2. The panel says it is seeking 2026-27 financial forecasts. It is also seeking further information on the timing and amount of anticipated revenues from the Bell AI data centre project.
It said the timing of revenue from the AI data centre project is particularly important because "SaskPower’s improved 2026-27 financial forecast is driven in part by anticipated additional electricity sales to the project. The Panel’s consultant concluded that the timing of those revenues remains uncertain."
The panel says it is also seeking an update on the federal Output-Based Pricing System and on "rate options that would move the Oilfields, Reseller and Small Commercial customer classes closer to their respective revenue requirements." It will make its recommendation following that review of the updated information.
The panel also made recommendations aimed at "strengthening future SaskPower rate applications and protecting ratepayer interests." According to its news release, these include improved long-term resource and rate planning, greater control and reporting of operating costs, increased public disclosure of key planning information, development of a policy for artificial intelligence and other large data-centre loads, and allowing sufficient time for future rate applications to be publicly reviewed before new rates take effect.
“The Panel recognizes the affordability pressures facing Saskatchewan households, farms and businesses,” said panel chair Albert Johnston in a statement. “At the same time, SaskPower must have sufficient revenue and financial capacity to maintain a safe and reliable electricity system. We believe the 2026 increase should be confirmed, but the decision on the 2027 rate should be based on the most current financial information available.”
In a statement, Minister Responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison had this to say about the Rate Review Panel's recommendations:
"The Panel confirmed that SaskPower is facing significant financial pressures resulting from aging infrastructure, rising operating costs, and growing electricity demand. It also emphasized the importance of affordability for Saskatchewan households, farms, and businesses. We will carefully review the report and ensure any future decisions strike the appropriate balance between maintaining a reliable electricity system and protecting ratepayers from unnecessary cost increases."
In a media availability at the legislature Friday morning, the NDP SaskPower critic Aleana Young saw the Rate Review Panel recommendations as bad news.
"This is brutal," said Young. "That would be my reaction to the panel's report on the state of SaskPower and the rate increases."
Young said her party had been "ringing the alarm bell on the politicization of SaskPower, the historic losses, and the fact that this government's only business plan for the Crown appears to be secrecy. Everything in the consultant's report to the panel confirms this. We see clearly in black and white a condemnation of Jeremy Harrison and Scott Moe's continued willingness to use SaskPower for ideological and political decision-making."
As for the possibility that the panel could come back later this year with a recommendation for a rate increase as high as 6.4 per cent, Young pointed to the financial problems currently facing SaskPower.
"We see that SaskPower hasn't hit its return on equity target since Scott Moe became premier. We see that the proposed rate increase for next year is the second highest in Canada, again with no information to allow the panel to do its report. We see the panel clearly slapping the government down for issuing no rate increases in election years, and then turning around and forcing above-inflationary rates on SaskPower customers. They've conveniently laid out a chart of SaskPower rate increases from 2007 to date, and you can see that under this government, people's bills have increased nearly 75 per cent. And yet, while running a monopoly, the Sask. Party has managed to lose historic amounts of money at SaskPower. The panel was unable to provide any kind of answer to the public or to SaskPower customers as to what number is needed to right the ship, but what is clear is that they don't have the information, and that SaskPower is in dire straits."
As for how to right the ship, Young called on the government to "scrap your reckless and most expensive coal plan. With the 3.9 per cent rate increase, you're going to need 200 years of four per cent rate increases to pay off that inexplicable plan, for which, again, the Sask. Party refused to provide any basic information, costing, or business planning to the panel. That's a clear step one. This is a government that is hell-bent on choosing what independent report after independent report makes clear is the most expensive, highest-cost, highest-risk option for customers of all classes."
