SASKATOON, Sask. — Ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions and the rising costs linked to tariffs could become a factor in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, according to two Saskatchewan academics who say affordability concerns may test President Donald Trump’s leadership.
The Republicans (GOP) are trying to maintain their majority in Congress, with control of both the House and Senate at stake. The GOP holds a slim majority in the House, 218-214, while having a 53-47 advantage in the Senate heading into the Nov. 3 midterms.
Recent polling showed the Democrats are positioned to make gains, potentially taking control of one or both chambers. The election could therefore have significant implications for U.S. trade policy and the future of Canada-U.S. trade relations.
University of Saskatchewan Edwards School of Business dean Keith Willoughby and political and international studies lecturer Martin Gaal said tariffs continue to drive up consumer prices and deepen affordability concerns.
Continuous uncertainty
Willoughby and Gaal said the trade war is unlikely to be the decisive issue for most U.S. voters. Still, its economic consequences could factor into the midterms, with Willoughby saying the trade dispute's affordability effects could make the issue relevant to U.S. voters.
“Absolutely, because it affects affordability for real people. And when you have the affordability of real people involved, I think that will impact how people vote at an election time,” Willoughby said when asked whether tariffs would influence the midterms.
Willoughby said prolonged tariffs could affect business operations, employment, economic growth, inflation and supply chains' ability to withstand further disruptions after the pandemic, rising prices and higher interest rates.
He added that the breakdown in negotiations was unlikely to be resolved quickly, noting that both countries had taken positions that made it difficult to return to the negotiating table, and that actions by both countries had made it difficult to restore the relationship to its previous state.
“I think there's a long road ahead. I don't see an immediate return to the negotiation table where the situation is immediately resolved. I think it will be mitigated. I think we'll be in more of a stabilized situation,” Willoughby said.
“But I can't see us going back to, even back to 1988 when we signed the Free Trade Agreement and where things were much more stable.”
He added that he could not see an immediate return to the conditions that existed before 2024.
Willoughby said tariffs could eventually pressure governments on both sides of the border to seek more sustainable trade arrangements. However, he warned that further tariff-related inflation could intensify the affordability challenges already facing Canadians and those in the U.S.
“My concern is that in both the United States and Canada, real citizens are getting caught in an affordability crisis. If this, again, increases inflationary cycles, if it puts the pressure on the pocketbooks of citizens, I think that's a message that the governments will need to adhere to,” Willoughby said.
Could sway voters
Gaal agreed that tariffs could play a role in the election but said the Canada-specific dispute would not, by itself, determine the outcome. He said the broader affordability crisis, including inflation, wages and the cost of essential goods, would likely matter more to voters.
“I don't think the trade war with Canada itself will be determinative in the election. However, there are certain states where that's going to become more important, like Maine, Ohio, Michigan, places that are deeply integrated into the Canadian economy,” Gaal said.
Gaal added that Democrats could use the trade dispute and tariffs more generally to argue that the Trump administration's policies were making life more expensive for those in the U.S., with the issue becoming more significant because of retaliatory tariffs imposed by Ottawa.
“Where it will potentially play a role is whether the Democrats can include the trade war with Canada and tariffs more generally as part of the affordability crisis,” said Gaal, who added that disruptions involving Canadian resources and goods are contributing to higher costs south of the border.
He said affordability and inflation would likely rank among the most important issues in the midterms, alongside wages, foreign policy and immigration. Although tariffs could amplify existing economic concerns, he said the trade war was unlikely to be the primary issue on most voters' minds.
“I think this will play a magnifying role, potentially, but the trade war isn't going to be top of mind for most American voters in the midterm. It will play a role, but not a determinative role,” said Gaal, adding that a Democratic win would shift the balance of power in Washington.
He suggested the midterms could introduce stronger congressional checks on the Trump administration’s foreign and trade policies, creating an opportunity to stabilize Canada-U.S. relations. However, a complete return to previous conditions was unlikely.
The Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed after Prime Minister Mark Carney recalled the country’s negotiating team following Washington’s last-minute demands, which Ottawa deemed unfair and a threat to Canada’s sovereignty.
Bloomberg reported over the weekend that Trump said his administration could reach a trade deal with Canada “fairly soon”. He did not provide further details and again repeated his claim that Canada has “ripped off” the U.S. with the trade deal.
The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, was agreed to and signed by Trump, then-prime minister Justin Trudeau and former Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto in November 2018, with a revised version signed in December 2019.
