WESTERN PRODUCER — Some major agricultural commodities, like canola oil, canola meal and beef, have not been dragged into Canada’s tariff battle with the United States.
That’s great news, for now.
However, there’s a risk that president Donald Trump could target those critical exports in future tariffs, says a food industry expert from Dalhousie University.
“I do think that everything is on the table for (Trump),” said Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie and host of The Food Professor podcast.
“It’s troubling to see the White House go after our liquor business, going after dairy… and absolutely, crops could be next. Livestock could be next.”
Charlebois isn’t the only person worried that Trump will introduce tariffs on canola oil and other agri-food commodities. A former leader in the canola industry, who worked in the crushing business for decades, agreed that it’s a possibility. How likely it is, that’s hard to say.
But a tariff on canola meal or oil would be devastating for Western Canada.
“Canola value would crater, quite a bit… crush (volumes) would go down. (We) would export more seed to China,” he said.
The former leader spoke on the condition of anonymity, because he works part time in the agri-food industry and has established relationships in the crushing business.
The Canada-U.S. trade battle has dominated the news cycle in September, thanks to tariffs and counter-tariffs.
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. products, including honey, dairy and many other goods, came into effect Sept. 8.
The White House responded with bans and tariffs on Canadian goods, which will take effect Sept. 29.
The spiralling trade battle will hurt thousands of Canadian businesses, including honey producers, dairy, wool exporters and alcohol manufacturers.
However, many of Canada’s top agricultural exports have avoided Trump’s wrath.
U.S. canola oil imports have climbed sharply since 2021-22, with biofuel use accounting for most of the growth. Canada supplies more than 90 per cent of the imported oil. | Source: USDA Economic Research Service
In 2025, Canada’s oilseed crushing industry exported $4.2 billion of canola oil and $1.4 billion in canola meal to the United States. Canola oil exports have increased since 2020, due to strong demand from America’s biofuel industry.
Those two products, along with beef and live cattle exports, represent nearly $10 billion in annual exports to the U.S.
Why agriculture was spared
Trump hasn’t targeted those critical products because moderate voices in America’s ag industry have likely restrained the White House. In June, 160 farm and agricultural organizations signed a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, urging him to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
“CUSMA/USMCA… creates stability and predictability — all vital elements that farmers and businesses need to plan for the future,” the letter said.
Lobbying and pressure from 160 different groups behind the scenes in Washington, D.C. could explain why Trump hasn’t placed tariffs on major agricultural commodities.
Ian Sheldon, an agricultural economist and trade expert at Ohio State University, has noticed that Canada has taken a similar approach.
As an example, the U.S. exports more than a billion dollars worth of ethanol to Canada annually, and it’s not part of the tariff war.
There’s also the matter of inflation.
Tariffs on Canadian beef, canola oil and other agricultural products would be inflationary. The U.S. public is already frustrated with the high cost of everything, especially at the grocery store, as it’s the top concern for most Americans.
“Three-quarters of voters are very unhappy with the tariffs that the U.S. has put in place,” Sheldon said.
Is canola really vulnerable?
D’Arce McMillan, former Markets editor with the Western Producer, is also concerned that political whims represent a risk for Canada’s canola crushing industry.
The U.S is the dominant buyer of Canadian canola oil, as it takes 80 to 90 per cent of Canada’s annual production.
That dependence on one market for an agricultural export is something that oilseed crushers must worry about, McMillan wrote.
“In the age of president Donald Trump, it must cause some unease in corporate board rooms.”
Under a doomsday scenario where Trump introduced tariffs, or changed renewable fuel policies, Canada’s canola crushers would have few options, said the former canola industry leader.
Crushers are selling huge volumes of canola oil to America because renewable fuel processors want the product and are willing to pay a premium price.
“If you look at the stats (on canola oil), we’ve abandoned every other export market,” he said.
The consequence for Canadian farmers would be lower canola prices because domestic crushers now consume about 65 per cent of the crop.
The federal government could shift policies, to favour canola oil’s usage in renewable fuels, but that action could take years, said the retired leader.
Will this escalate?
The Canada-U.S. trade battle has provoked some Americans. In Columbus, Ohio, where Sheldon lives, local television stations have reported on provincial bans on American liquor. Those reports typically show Jack Daniels being removed from liquor store shelves in Canada and replaced with Crown Royal.
On this side of the border, millions of Canadians are sick of Trump’s insults and aggression. They support the government’s decision to fight back and get tough with the U.S.
There’s a risk that those hostilities will continue or get worse, which could affect trade in canola, agricultural products and all goods between the two countries.
“I’m very worried about the long run stability of (CUSMA) and what would be lost,” Sheldon said.
“The U.S. and Canada have had great trade relations (for decades)…. To undermine the integrated nature of the North America relationship… would probably be bad for everybody.”
About the author
Reporter
Robert Arnason is a reporter with The Western Producer and Glacier Farm Media. Since 2008, he has authored nearly 5,000 articles on anything and everything related to Canadian agriculture. He didn’t grow up on a farm, but Robert spent hundreds of days on his uncle’s cattle and grain farm in Manitoba. Robert started his journalism career in Winnipeg as a freelancer, then worked as a reporter and editor at newspapers in Nipawin, Saskatchewan and Fernie, BC. Robert has a degree in civil engineering from the University of Manitoba and a diploma in LSJF – Long Suffering Jets’ Fan.
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