REGINA, Sask. — As trade tensions between Canada and the United States continue to create uncertainty, Saskatchewan is seeing significant investment in major resource and infrastructure projects. Business commentator Paul Martin says sustained capital inflows could drive job creation, population growth and long-term economic development across the province.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Craig Reed — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Craig Reed. When it comes to the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the United States, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says they're holding fast to their position to do with negotiations and the current lack of movement. Speaking yesterday, Greer said, “When the Canadians want to get to “yes,” obviously we’ll be there ready to talk,” adding American trade negotiators are in frequent contact with their Canadian counterparts.
Greer also suggested the recent provincial election in Quebec has shifted Ottawa's attention somewhat from trade talks.
Meanwhile, closer to home, with the ongoing tariff situation creating economic uncertainty across much of Canada, business commentator Paul Martin says one thing that has helped to insulate Saskatchewan and Western Canada in general from being hit as hard as other parts of the country is the amount of incoming investment into the region.
Paul Martin — And that really is what drives an economy. It's all about investment. You need investment to flow in in order to build stuff. Build stuff means you hire people to construct. Construction means a whole mess of people move into your community to do that work. They need places to rent, they need to go to grocery stores. And that's what you see happen is, is these almost they're a little bit bubble because it's just construction. But if the flow is so consistent and take a look at what's going on in Saskatchewan right now, I mean, BHP has been at it for about five years building that mine at Jansen, and it's got a couple more to go. It's going to be followed by two or three uranium mines that are coming. This flow of capital coming into Saskatchewan, unprecedented. But it's going to be extended for a long period of time. Now, if you add oil and gas to it or oil for Saskatchewan’s story, we're probably looking at, you know, another 10 years of substantial capital inflows into the province and that's really economy-building kind of stuff.
Craig Reed — Martin says that Saskatchewan seems to have entered a new era, showcasing a more welcoming atmosphere towards such investment, with an eye toward cutting red tape and getting things done.
Paul Martin — Yeah, there's no question there is. And we finally got the list of projects lined up. So, you know, I didn't even mention that the nuclear plants that come along with this, too. So that's another, you know, 10 years at the back end of this, uh, so this capital flow is going to be, is going to continue for an awful long time.
But underlying all of that, we've always known these projects are here. And I alluded the other day to the fact that when Gardiner Dam was built to create Lake Diefenbaker, that was 70 years ago, there was actually a plan for a Candu nuclear reactor to be cooled by that lake that was being created. So this is hardly new. I mean, we've been kicking this around for 70 years, so why did it not happen? That's really the question. And that resides more in the political realm than it does in the business realm.
So look at what's happened here politically in the last 20 years, you've had a right of center government that has been investor friendly. And, you know, it takes a long time for memories to forget past stuff. So we're finally now where the investment community says this is a place that's worth doing. And if you believe in the theory of buy low, sell high, it's hard to find something that's as undervalued as Saskatchewan because we simply didn't have capital flowing in here for 70 years. And now that it's free to come in or it seems to, it's reached a point in its thought process that it would like to come to Saskatchewan. We're seeing it come in and people are just looking at it and saying, that's an undervalued province. We can make money by investing in big projects in that place because it's underdeveloped. That's what you're starting to see.
This book has opened, and the string of major projects that's lined up here is really quite dramatic, and it's like nothing we've ever seen before. It's going to be quite the run that we have here in the next 30 or 40 years. And I just wish I was 20 years old again, because it’d sure be fun to take that ride.
Craig Reed — Martin says the increased capital investment in Saskatchewan will lead to job creation and population growth, both of which will help to bolster the province's economy.
Paul Martin — You know, we saw Air Canada pull out of flights from Saskatchewan to Alberta. You think that would have happened if we had four million people in Saskatchewan? Probably not. Right? And so this is what we forget to talk about, is that, you know, now to fly to Toronto, you often have to go to Calgary to get there, and it doesn't make much sense. But that's the reality of what happens when you don't have enough people in your jurisdiction.
So when you see this flow that's going on, the capital, people follow opportunity. That's an economic truism that's never gone away. So economic developers live with that. And the more opportunity you have, the more people you will have that follow.
So if you look at the charts and you overlay these two charts, how did Saskatchewan's economy grow on an investment perspective and how did Saskatchewan's population grow? They're almost identical, but they're 18 to 24 months apart. So the money started to flow in. But it took 18 months for people across the country to say, hey, Saskatchewan's the land of opportunity. There's jobs there. I'm moving there. So there's that gap. And when you see the capital flow in, you can count on the population will flow not far behind.
Craig Reed — That was business commentator Paul Martin I'm Craig Reed. Have a great day and thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
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