SASKATOON, Sask. — Growers, exporters and buyers might be pleasantly surprised with the quality of Canada’s 2026 crop, say analysts.
“There was probably a little bit more consternation about the quality outcome than it’s going to end up being,” said Neil Townsend, senior market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
“There’s a greater amount of resiliency in the crops now. That’s what they’ve been bred for, they’ve been bred to perform under non-optimal conditions.”
Exceed Grain Marketing made similar comments in the latest Wheat Market Outlook and Prices report it prepares for the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission.
“Anecdotally, wheat quality remains somewhat of a question mark, but results may not be as poor as many feared in mid-September following the prolonged rainfall,” the firm stated.
The Canadian Grain Commission said it is too early to comment on crop quality, but its wheat and durum quality reports do not indicate any big disaster.
The reports show that 77 per cent of the 526 CWRS samples and 68.2 per cent of the 255 CWAD samples made the top two grades as of Oct. 6.
Analysts speaking at the recent 2026 Pulse & Special Crops Convention said quality will be an issue for chickpeas this year, but they were not overly concerned about peas and lentils.
Townsend said while individual producers are not thrilled when there is quality damage in their crops, it is not necessarily a bad thing for the grain industry as a whole.
“Oddly enough, when there’s a little bit of quality variation, it actually makes the crop quite saleable offshore,” he said.
For instance, not every durum buyer wants to pay for No. 1 or No. 2 quality. There are markets for No. 3, No. 4 and No. 5 CWAD.
Obviously, nobody wants a major disaster where it is difficult to source the top grades, but some variety is welcome when it comes to marketing the crop, said Townsend.
“The one issue could be that if the quality is so mixed that it starts to clog up the logistics system because it gets harder to make representative cargoes, that would be one concern,” he said.
“This is the year we don’t want any slowdown to logistics because we should be at record levels of exports because the world is going to demand it.”
The mean protein content of the CWRS crop was 14 per cent as of October 6, while CWAD was 13.4 per cent, according to the CGC.
Townsend thinks protein content is overblown. He thinks anything above 12.5 per cent is a good crop.
“There’s fewer and fewer customers that buy in bulk that really pay for protein,” he said.
Townsend said Canada’s customers often receive higher protein wheat than what they paid for because Canada often has excess supplies.
Canada will likely be supplying some of the Black Sea region’s usual customer base this year due to war-related shipping problems in that region of the world. Those buyers are usually in the market for low protein wheat.
He said the world market is not very deep for protein levels of 14 per cent and higher.
“You can’t sell 24 million tonnes of that,” said Townsend.
About the author
Sean Pratt has been working at The Western Producer since 1993 after graduating from the University of Regina’s School of Journalism. Sean also has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Saskatchewan and worked in a bank for a few years before switching careers. Sean primarily writes markets and policy stories about the grain industry and has attended more than 100 conferences over the past three decades. He has received awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Federation, North American Agricultural Journalists and the American Agricultural Editors Association.
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