REGINA, Sask. – A new poll from Abacus Data is out showing a horserace at the top in Saskatchewan politics.
According to the online poll of 1,000 people conducted between Oct. 5 to 13, the Saskatchewan Party holds a lead with 48 per cent, compared to 46 per cent for the NDP. Six per cent support other parties. The margin of error is 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The poll gives the Saskatchewan Party a significant lead in rural Saskatchewan — 60 to 28 per cent in the rural south and 58-36 in the central and north – as well as a lead in the smaller cities 54 to 45 per cent. But in the biggest cities the NDP holds a considerable advantage, leading 62 to 34 per cent in Saskatoon and 54 to 41 per cent in Regina.
Curtis Brown, vice president for Western Canada for Abacus Data, said "it's tightening. It looks like it's going to be, you know, it's competitive."
"Next week, the legislature session starts, and I think that's…going to be a very important time, I think, for both the parties in there. And yeah, seeing kind of how it breaks down… I'm not especially surprised to see that, yeah, obviously, the Sask Party still has a great deal of strength in rural Saskatchewan and a bit of an edge still in the small cities, like North Battleford and others, which I think are really important to whether it'll stay in government or not."
The support for the government differs by age as well. Older voters age 60 and up favour the Sask Party overwhelmingly, 65 to 32 per cent. In all other age categories the NDP are ahead, including young voters.
As for the leaders, Abacus reports views of NDP leader Carla Beck are relatively positive, but she remains somewhat of an unknown with voters. The poll reports 48 per cent view Premier Scott Moe positively and 47 per cent view Beck positively, but Beck's net positives are higher with only 16 per cent viewing her negatively compared to 23 per cent for Moe.
One thing that stands out to Brown in the poll results is on the question of whether people think it is a time for a change.
According to the poll 50 per cent of respondents expressed a desire for change. This breaks down to 31 per cent who say the Saskatchewan Party government has done a good job and deserves re-election; 32 per cent who say the government has done a poor job, and then 18 per cent who say the Saskatchewan Party has done a good job but still believe it’s still time for a change.
"And it's interesting, because… obviously, you're going to have people who think that it's time for the Sask Party to go, and a lot of those people are probably in the NDP camp already. But you do have this one in five who, I mean, yeah, they may be Sask Party supporters, or they generally are happy with the party — think they've done a good job in government over nearly two decades now. And the feeling that, yeah… maybe it has been too long, maybe it is time for a change."
As for the major issues, Abacus finds that cost of living, followed by health care, remains the two most prominent issues. Cost of living ranks highest at 63 per cent, with health care second at 42 per cent and housing affordability a distant third at 27 per cent.
Brown says cost of living has come up as a major issue in their polling nation-wide. "So it's no surprise that that's a major concern in Saskatchewan."
Also not a surprise is the interest in the health care issue. He said the state of health care, especially at the provincial level, is always "a major thing as well, especially for older voters — that's something that we see quite often."
But when it comes to who would do the best on the cost of living issue, Moe or Beck, it is a wash.
"I'm not hugely surprised by this, but neither of them really, you know, owns the cost of living issue. Like, you know, when we ask people which one's going to do the most to make life more affordable, it was essentially a tie, about three in ten each." Others responses were either "neither of them," or "they don't know," he said.
Brown also points to people seeing Premier Moe as stronger on "the overall plan for the economy, the overall plan for dealing with Ottawa and standing up for Saskatchewan's interests." But then for the NDP and Beck, "they see her as being much more likely to, you know, do a better job of improving health care."
Abacus is planning to do more polling on Saskatchewan politics on a regular basis, with Brown saying they will be polling every quarter in Saskatchewan to get a better sense of what's happening on the various issues.
