The first Tuesday in November, around the midpoint of a United States President’s four-year term of office, there is an election day in America. This year all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for election. The scientific study of elections is called psephology. Psephology deals with both forecasting and explaining election results.
Canadian and US news services make use of psephologists for election news and coverage. Psephologists is a British academic designation. In North America we usually call psephologists by names like election analysts, decision desk directors, pollsters, or political scientists.
The term psephology was first used in 1948 by W.F.R. Hardie (1902-1990), a Scottish classical scholar. A friend, R.B. McCallum, a British historian who analyzed public opinion, requested from Hardie a word to describe the study of elections.
Psephology was derived from the Greek word psephos, meaning pebble. In the early days of the Athenian democracy (6th century BC) pebbles were used by jurors in law courts to indicate their votes by placing the psephos in the appropriate urn. Since this was visible to all, bribery and intimidation were common to make sure the juror placed his pebble in the correct urn.
In the 4th century BC pebbles were replaced by 5 cm bronze coins with a peg running through the centre, which were called psephoi. One coin had a hollow peg, the other had a solid peg. Hollow-pegged coins were a vote for the plaintiff, and solid-pegged coins were used for the defendant. A juror could conceal the peg with their fingers and vote without fear of pressure from outside sources, as they all placed their psephos demosia (official vote) in one bronze urn.
The word ballot comes from the Italian ballotta, meaning little ball. Venetians voted by placing balls in containers in the 1500s. White balls were used for support, while black balls signified opposition. Eventually the term blackballing came to mean to be excluded socially or to be ostracized.
Psephomancy was developed to describe divination that involves predicting the future or answering questions by casting, drawing, or studying marked pebbles, stones, or beans.
Psephology can be pursued by those who have a background in Statistics and/or Political Science. In India, psephologists are in great demand, as elections are held regularly in some state or area. Indian media groups and political parties often employ psephologists to bring clarity to issues through statistical information.
Psephology uses voting data, public opinion polls, and campaign finance information. Much research and analysis is involved for us to be able to see these statistics and draw inferences. I usually experience information overload when watching coverage of elections on TV channels.
Pew Research Centre has found that over 20% of Americans now get news and election coverage from influencers on social media. Many of these influencers have little or no study of psephology. They share their opinion, often not fact based or fact checked. Knowledge of demographics, statistical analysis and politics are prerequisites for becoming a psephologist.
Psephology is now used to analyze election results for current indicators, not just predictive intentions. Tracking social conditions, monitoring changes in society, and evaluating quality of life or public welfare are social indicators that provide progress towards societal goals and guide policy.
Are psephologists useful? Through their study of district data, demographic shifts, and turnout trends they try to explain why people vote the way they do. However, human behaviour, last-minute events, and changing public opinion disrupt models. Psephology can aid in unpacking election returns, but so much information, hour after hour on TV, numbs one’s mind and becomes rather tedious for many people. Just give me the results!
Columnist John Kreutzwieser loves to research words and has an interest in the usage, origin, and relevance of words for society today. Greek and Latin form the basis of many words, with ancient Hebrew shedding light on word usage.
John would like to know if anyone has a sincere interest in a relevant word that he could possibly research for an upcoming column. If so, please send your requests to wordwisdom2021@gmail.com. Words will be selected according to relevance and research criteria. We cannot confirm that all words will be used.
