WESTERN PRODUCER — The United States had a US$48 billion trade deficit with Canada in 2025, says the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
It’s a problem for U.S. president Donald Trump and many Americans, including Jake Thompson, a farmer from western Minnesota.
The U.S. also has a massive trade deficit with Mexico, China, Japan, the European Union and many other nations, Thompson said.
That isn’t sustainable, so he supports the president’s efforts to “level the playing field.”
“When you start adding up the dollars for our (trade deficit) … it’s unbelievable,” Thompson said in the third week of October.
“When it comes to trade, we have to start being equals with all of our trading partners. That’s ultimately what this administration’s goal is, not just with Canada.”
Agriculture is a sizeable part of the U.S.’s trade deficit with Canada.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service for 2025 says the country exported $28.7 worth of agricultural goods to Canada, while Canada shipped $39.2 billion to the U.S., for a trade deficit of $10.5 billion.
The United States’ trade deficit in agricultural goods was more than US 10 billion in 2025. Photo: USDA
While those numbers favour Canada, most American ag groups like CUSMA, known as USMCA south of the border.
The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA is a group of commodity organizations that want the agreement renewed. Members include major players in American agriculture, including the National Corn Growers Association and the National Milk Producers Federation.
The agreement helps farmers and ranchers, but the coalition also wants it improved.
“The July 2026 review of USMCA provides the industry an opportunity to reflect on and underscore the importance of … the agreement … while pursuing targeted adjustments … that benefit market access for U.S. agriculture,” says the coalition’s website.
Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. to update CUSMA broke down in August and have not formally re-started.
The agreement was signed just six years ago, in 2020, but Val Wagner, president of the North Dakota Farm Bureau, said U.S. trade negotiators should push for a better deal,
The three countries in the agreement should be willing to discuss and alter the deal so that it functions for all parties, she added.
In other words, it shouldn’t be static.
“We know there always needs to be an active conversation, that give and take between our borders,” said Wagner, who runs a mixed farm in Monango, N.D., in the state’s southeast corner.
“Once that agreement is made, you don’t put it on the shelf and wait until (it expires)…. It needs to be a continual conversation.”
Does the U.S. need Canada?
Thompson, who operates a mixed farm with 3,200 acres of cropland and 240 Black Angus cows near Barnesville, Minn., is the president of the Minnesota State Cattlemen’s Association.
He’s a big fan of some Canadian exports, such as Pendleton whiskey and the Letterkenny television series.
Thompson has seen nearly every episode and loves the show about country life in the fictional town of Letterkenny, Ont.
However, it’s illogical that the U.S. has a substantial trade deficit with Canada, he added.
American farmers need Canadian potash, but there’s only a handful of agricultural commodities and inputs that the U.S. can’t produce, “while you guys have a bunch (that you can’t),” Thompson said.
“(So) why are we at a trade deficit when (Canada) needs us more than we need it?”
Ag secretary wants balanced trade
Thompson’s belief in fair and balanced trade is shared by Brooke Rollins, the U.S. agriculture secretary.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has a website solely dedicated to the agricultural trade deficit and what’s being done to rectify the problem.
The website has a deficit tracker that’s updated once a month.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has a website that tracks America’s trade deficit in agricultural goods. Photo: USDA
In late October, it said:
• As of January 2025, the agriculture deficit was $50 billion.
• The current deficit forecast is $29 billion, a reduction of 42 per cent.
“By opening new markets … and enforcing fair and reciprocal trade rules, the administration is working to drive American agricultural exports higher and bring the agricultural trade deficit down,” the USDA says.
These actions make perfect sense to Thompson.
Why should American agriculture have a trade deficit with any country when the U.S. can produce such a rich variety of agricultural goods?
“Canada needs us more than we need Canada,” he said.
“We just want a level playing field. At what point in time are you going to allow us to do that?”
‘Pause on rationality’
The midterm elections have been responsible for much of the tension between the United States and Canada around trade, Wagner said.
The political pressure of the midterms made it difficult for politicians on both sides to say anything reasonable.
“A pause on rationality is happening right now,” Wagner said, weeks before the election.
North Dakota is different from other states because trade across the border is a huge part of its economy.
The number of Canadians visiting the state have dropped by about 25 per cent, which is hitting North Dakota’s hotels, shops and restaurants.
North Dakotans aren’t happy about it, but they aren’t angry with Canadians, Wagner said.
“There may be some frustration with the anti-American sentiment, but there isn’t anti-Canadian sentiment.”
When the heat from the midterm election cools off, it should be possible for Canadian and American representativess to have rational conversations and improve the deal, she added
“That’s my hope. I still think that’s possible,” she said.
“You don’t burn it all down … if the majority of (it) is working.”
About the author
Reporter
Robert Arnason is a reporter with The Western Producer and Glacier Farm Media. Since 2008, he has authored nearly 5,000 articles on anything and everything related to Canadian agriculture. He didn’t grow up on a farm, but Robert spent hundreds of days on his uncle’s cattle and grain farm in Manitoba. Robert started his journalism career in Winnipeg as a freelancer, then worked as a reporter and editor at newspapers in Nipawin, Saskatchewan and Fernie, BC. Robert has a degree in civil engineering from the University of Manitoba and a diploma in LSJF – Long Suffering Jets’ Fan.
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