MONTREAL — Two prominent members of the Quebec legislature announced on Monday their upcoming exit from provincial politics, ahead of a fall general election that at least one polling analyst says is shaping up to be unprecedented.
Longtime Coalition Avenir Québec cabinet minister Caroline Proulx said she’s ready to move on as she approaches her 60th birthday. Proulx, minister responsible for housing and the status of women, has held other portfolios, including tourism and seniors, since she was elected in the Berthier riding north of Montreal in 2018.
Proulx took time off last fall following the sudden death of her mother, and said Monday that this difficult period has contributed to her decision to step back.
Meanwhile, Independent legislature member Vincent Marissal said he’ll be leaving politics at the end of his term.
The Montreal member made waves last year when he left Québec solidaire, the leftist party that had suspended him for meeting with its rival Parti Québécois. In a social media post, he expressed a desire to escape the “omnipresent spotlight of public life,” adding he has no desire to be involved in future controversies.
Philippe J. Fournier, editor-in-chief of poll aggregator 338Canada, said the two departures can’t really be lumped together because they are based on different circumstances. But he said they set up interesting races, especially in Marissal’s riding of Rosemont, which was previously held by former Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée.
Fournier says the riding was once a PQ stronghold but its demographics have changed in recent years. Marissal first won it for Québec solidaire in 2018, and it is represented on the federal level by Alexandre Boulerice, the NDP’s lone Quebec MP. Boulerice has openly said he is considering quitting federal politics to run with Québec solidaire.
Fournier expects the Parti Québécois to make a strong play to regain the seat, while Québec solidaire will do “everything they can” to save it. The Liberals could also have an “outside shot” depending on their candidate, he said.
“There are a number of ways Rosemont could go in the next election depending on the local dynamics, and I would be a fool to make any predictions here,” he said.
Fournier said the PQ also has a good chance of winning Proulx’s riding, which it held for the 10 years preceding her 2018 victory.
But the bigger picture of the election is getting harder to read, he said. While the Parti Québécois has been topping polls for at least the last two years, a recent survey by Pallas Data suggested that their lead is narrowing.
Fournier says the same Pallas poll showed support dropping for a referendum on Quebec independence — a political project both the PQ and Québec solidaire support — which could spell bad news for PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has promised a sovereignty vote by 2030 if he becomes premier.
He said the election will hinge on whether the PQ can attract non-sovereigntist voters, but that’s not the only question in play.
The CAQ, the Liberals and Québec solidaire will all be running with new leaders, he noted. The winner of the CAQ leadership race will also become premier in April, replacing outgoing leader François Legault.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives could be poised to make their entry into the legislature based on support around the Quebec City area, the CAQ is fighting for its survival, and Québec solidaire is trying to remain relevant as it struggles at the bottom of the polls, Fournier said. The Liberals, for their part, are looking to rekindle support with francophones outside Montreal under new leader Charles Milliard.
“There’s no recent precedent of an election that looks like this,” he said, ” … there’s many, many storylines and I don’t think we have a precedent, at least recently, in my lifetime.”
The next election is scheduled for Oct. 5.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 2, 2026.
Morgan Lowrie, The Canadian Press
