Given the high prices of fertilizer right now, would that influence farmers to change their seeding plans?
That's a question Farm Credit Canada (FCC) explored with an analysis on swing acres and which crops could see the most change between now and when seeding begins.
FCC Senior Economist Leigh Anderson notes fertilizer prices rose exponentially when conflict in Iran started in late-February.
"We've seen fertilizer prices increase, you know, anywhere in that 30 to 40 percent, especially on non-nitrogen fertilizer, hitting pretty much that first week right after the conflict broke out. Those prices went considerably higher. Of course, that impacts us right here in Western Canada," said Anderson.
"As we approach seeding and those last-minute acreage changes or fertilizer requirements that hadn't been booked yet, those farmers are facing much higher fertilizer prices, and that goes directly to their bottom line for the upcoming growing season."
FCC acknowledged seeding decisions are already set and in most years, farmers make small changes. But they feel this year could be different.
Looking at seeded acreage changes over the last 10 years compared with current Stats Canada projections, there is approximately 5.48 million swing acres across Canada.
Anderson says spring wheat has the largest amount of swing acres at 1.39 million acres and second is canola at 740 thousand acres. He says we could see more canola acres than spring wheat.
"Canola is favoured. We do have the new canola crush plant here in Regina that is online now as well, so that can absorb some more production for growing season and some more acres, which is favourable for that commodity." he said.
On other crops, Anderson says lentil and durm acres "are under pressure to large supplies from last year and weaker prices" while oats and barley "are kind of some wildcards."
These crops combine for more than 2.5 million swing acres.
On lentils, he says "lentils do face some market access issues going into India, so a little bit of tariffs there and the possibility of higher tariffs going forward from India."
It's a similar story for peas, he said, with the "removal of tariffs for the Chinese market."
"Peas are often included in farmers' rotations not just for the current return but the agronomic benefits of putting more nitrogen back in the soil for next year, so it does help that return over rotation for the following year, for 2027. That could actually surprise us and give us some more pea acres as well. That kind of remains uncertain." Anderson added.
Anderson could see farmers incorporate more oats and barley, considering oats are "relatively cheap to grow" and can be stored "for when prices return", and barley doesn't need much fertilizer compared to other crops.
"Then the other one is that growing cattle herd. Maybe you'll see some more barley acres go in to support that market. We are seeing strong barley demand right now in the market too, which could favour more acres for 2026." he added.
As for unseeded acres, FCC notes it could rise by 280 thousand acres to 1.4 million acres. Anderson says that depends on a few factors including moisture, high fertilizer prices and lower commodity prices.
The report also covers hay land for livestock producers and whether there could be a rise in acres as the Canadian cattle herd increases.
FCC says the herd has increased by 4.8 per cent as of January 1, 2026 and Anderson believes hay land acres could go up as the herd numbers go up.
"If the weather cooperates, you could actually see some of those acres shift back into hay. The relationship with cattle herd size and hayland acres across Canada does suggest that up to 650,000 acres could move into hay, but the caveat there is also some of the cattle guys have started using more corn and barley silage, so that could limit some of that shift that we are indicating." he said.
Anderson says a lot of the change will depend on which high-input crop farmers are willing to change in favour of a low-input crop, as well as what happens with fighting in the Middle East.
