University of Saskatchewan experts Keith Willoughby and Martin Gaal analyze provincial trade exposure and the political stalemate keeping both sides from the bargaining table. We also hear from Supreme Steel and Opposition Leader Carla Beck on the battle for domestic contracts as cross-border steel shipments drop to zero.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson. The past 24 hours have brought a brief lull in new tariff announcements and executive orders from Washington and Ottawa, but behind the scenes, economists, political scientists and industry leaders are taking stock of the damage already done and mapping out how long this cross-border standoff could last.
While the prairie economy is heavily exposed to American trade policy, the vulnerabilities are not distributed equally across the region. Keith Willoughby is the Dean of the Edwards School of Business and a Management Science Professor at the University of Saskatchewan. He points out that while Canada as a whole sends roughly three-quarters of its exports south of the border, Saskatchewan has spent decades cultivating international markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
Even so, Willoughby warns that the sheer volume of provincial trade tied to the United States means billions of dollars remain on the line.
Dean of the Edwards School of Business Keith Willoughby —If you look across the nation, and you look at the trade that Saskatchewan does, or the provinces that do with the United States, Saskatchewan is one of the provinces that has the more diversified trade base. The United States is our major trading partner for this country. About three-quarters of our exports go to the United States.
In Saskatchewan, it's about 55 per cent. So we've been able to diversify our markets to Asia, to Latin America, to even some European and Middle East countries. So Saskatchewan is maybe better off than some provinces that have nearly 90 percent of their trade going to the United States.
We are benefited, we are advantaged because the relative impact is not as extreme, but it's still when 55 per cent of your trade is being impacted, that's billions and billions and billions of dollars.
Steven Wilson —Willoughby also worries that escalating tariffs are deepening an affordability crisis for ordinary citizens on both sides of the border. That leaves many wondering when negotiators will finally sit down to work out an off-ramp. But according to political scientists, the dispute has evolved into something far more dangerous than an ordinary trade disagreement.
Martin Gaal is a political studies lecturer at the University of Saskatchewan and an executive member of the Canadian International Council in Saskatoon. He says the standoff has become an existential question for Canadian sovereignty and national identity, leaving very little room for political leaders to back down.
Political studies lecturer Martin Gaal — For Carney, we're dealing with a domestic population, less so in Saskatchewan and Alberta, but at least in the rest of the country, that see American policy as a direct threat. This isn't a trade dispute to them and to most Canadians. This is an attack on Canadian sovereignty, on Canadian independence, on Canada's sense of identity itself, and so there's little room, politically, domestically, for us to back down if the deal includes things that have, for example, a U.S. veto on Canadian deals with other countries, or on putting particular sectors at risk that are important culturally, whether that be dairy or other things, and if there's no movement on the U.S. to retreat from the unlawful tariffs that have been imposed on aluminum and steel and softwood lumber, and in particular in the auto sector.
So it's really hard for Carney to have to take a deal that would be seen as a direct attack on the Canadian economy and Canadian sovereignty.
Steven Wilson —While academic observers analyze the geopolitical gridlock, local manufacturers are living with the consequences on the shop floor every single day. In Saskatoon, provincial NDP leader Carla Beck held a media event at Supreme Steel to call for immediate provincial action. Beck is demanding the provincial government establish a concrete industrial support strategy and mandate local procurement policies for public infrastructure projects to shield Saskatchewan steel workers.
Opposition Leader Carla Beck — Of course we're here today because Saskatchewan Steel, the people who work in steel, the manufacturers, are caught in the middle of a trade war that they didn't start. These are good Saskatchewan jobs, and these are the workers who build our province. And they need to know, they deserve to know, that their provincial government has a concrete plan to protect their jobs, to support Saskatchewan Steel, and to strengthen this critical industry.
Right now, we haven't seen that.
Steven Wilson — That call for domestic priority comes as Canadian steel makers find themselves completely locked out of their traditional southern markets. Supreme Steel President and Chief Executive Officer David Fritz says historically roughly one quarter of their revenue came from shipping fabricated structural steel to American buyers. This year, that export volume has collapsed, triggering fierce competition across Canada for the few remaining domestic contracts.
Supreme Steel president and CEO David Fritz — So 25 would be a historic number that we have traditionally done in the past. This year it's zero. We haven't shipped any steel into the U.S. this year out of this facility, so that's a change for sure. What we're seeing now is that the impact of the tariffs wasn't equal across the whole country. Actually the east was probably more impacted because in the past they would ship more steel to the U.S. But now what's happened since that door's closed is we see companies from across Canada competing for the same domestic projects, which is new.
Steven Wilson — Fritz says while Canadian fabricators are agile enough to adjust, project costs will remain elevated until free and fair trade is restored.
Next week on Trade Dispute Impact on the Prairies, we'll take a look at how the dispute is being viewed from the other side of the border, featuring a conversation with Grand Forks, North Dakota, Mayor Brandon Baczynski.
