In the latest episode of Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies, we look at the latest inflation numbers across the region, the political impact of the trade dispute and Saskatchewan’s massive new tech investment. We also hear from Grand Forks Mayor Brandon Bochenski and former federal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale on why energy remains a critical cross-border bargaining chip.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson. We're getting our first look at how the ongoing cross-border trade dispute is affecting the cost of living on the Prairies, though the data only captures the very early days of the tariff implementations.
Statistics Canada released inflation data for August yesterday. Saskatchewan saw its overall inflation rate drop to 3.5 per cent, down from 4.1 per cent in July. Alberta also saw a decrease, falling to 3.8 per cent. Manitoba moved in the opposite direction, with overall inflation rising slightly to 4.4 per cent. Nationally, the inflation rate held steady at three per cent. While energy and gasoline inflation cooled across all three Prairie provinces, economists warn the full impact of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will not be reflected until next month's report.
Politically, the trade war appears to be boosting the federal government's fortunes. New polling data released over the past week by Abacus Data, the Angus Reid Institute and Liaison Strategies shows the governing Liberals surging in popularity. The party now holds a 14-point lead across all three polls over the Conservatives.
Political capital comes as Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled yesterday he welcomes recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, suggesting the door remains open for trade negotiations to resume. Meanwhile, Prairie premiers are working to prove that the trade war is not a deal-breaker for foreign capital. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are at the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto.
At the summit yesterday, it was announced that the planned Bell Canada data centre in Saskatchewan will be quadrupled in size. The $52-billion project is being hailed as the largest private-sector investment in Saskatchewan history. In a similar push for trade diversification, the Manitoba government announced yesterday it is waiving the provincial sales tax on major investments in the Port of Churchill to stimulate alternative global export routes.
Despite the political tension, localized cross-border business is still moving forward. The United States government has outlined the environmental review schedule for the proposed Flat Lake Access Pipeline. The Steel Reef project will supply up to 80 million cubic feet of sour natural gas a day from a compressor station near Fortuna, N.D., to the Flat Lake Gas Plant, south of Waverton, where it will be processed for safe transport.
That ongoing reliance on shared energy infrastructure highlights exactly what is at risk. A new report in Americas Quarterly warns the trade dispute threatens to inflict long-term damage on regional supply chains. It is a fear shared by border leaders like Grand Forks Mayor Brandon Bochenski.
He says the energy sector is a critical vulnerability for both sides of the border.
Brandon Bochenski — Well, in energy production, and that's, I guess, you know, if you look at the western side of the state, that's where a lot of the exports go back and forth as it relates to energy. That's scary because that's a big driver for Saskatchewan. It's a big driver for our whole state in North Dakota.
So those types of areas definitely have people nervous.
Steven Wilson — That cross-border dependency is exactly why many Canadian strategists believe Ottawa holds a trump card. Former federal cabinet minister Ralph Goodale says that despite the aggressive rhetoric from Washington, the United States remains heavily reliant on Canadian resources to power its own economy.
Ralph Goodale — Well, there's no doubt that Canadians have a lot of what the world wants and a lot of what the United States wants. Mr. Trump often says I don't need anything from Canada. Well, look at where he's getting his energy, his oil, his gas, his uranium, his electricity.
Look where he gets his aluminum. Look where he gets his potash. Look where he gets his critical minerals.
Canada is obviously a big critical supplier to the United States.
Steven Wilson — As we wait for the Sept. 29 deadline for American import bans on some Canadian goods, we will continue tracking how inflation, investment and cross-border infrastructure are shaping the Prairie economy. I'm Steven Wilson, and thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. Read more stories from around your community and around the province at SaskToday.ca and 620CKRM.com.
