REGINA, Sask. — United States President Donald Trump targets Saskatchewan's most iconic export, threatening to buy Belarusian "blood potash" instead of Canadian fertilizer. Business commentator Paul Martin breaks down why the logistics of the threat don't add up. We also look at how regional energy investors are navigating the volatility, and why a new economic forecast says Manitoba is better insulated than its prairie neighbours.
Podcast available now on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson. Potash dominated the conversation in Saskatchewan after U.S. President Donald Trump yesterday announced on Truth Social the United States was working on a massive deal to purchase potash from Belarus for substantially less than the current market price is being paid for potash from Canada.
The news had an instant effect on the markets as the shares of Saskatchewan potash producers dropped. Mosaic fell by 1.4 per cent, Intrepid Potash fell by 1.1 per cent and BHP slipped by 0.3 per cent. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe took to social media himself to defend the potash industry. In a message on Facebook, Moe wrote, “More than 40 countries, Canada and its allies have sanctions against Belarus for supporting war criminal Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Buying blood potash from Belarus is supporting Russian aggression. It's wrong and it doesn't make sense.”
The Premier continued, “All of that potash has to be shipped first through Russia, then across the ocean, then across the U.S. to Midwestern farmers. Does anyone believe Belarusian blood potash shipped through Russia is going to be more affordable, more sustainable or more ethical than potash shipped from Saskatchewan right here in North America?”
The Saskatchewan NDP backed the premier's stance, releasing a statement calling Trump's post infuriating and criticizing the idea of signing a deal with an authoritarian Russian satellite state.
Business commentator Paul Martin says the threat is likely a bluff, pointing out that transporting fertilizer out of Eastern Europe is a logistical nightmare.
Paul Martin — It's much easier to get Saskatchewan potash to the U.S. than it is to get Belarusian potash to the U.S. And he's claiming that he can get it cheaper. Well, it would have to be a lot cheaper because, you know, just shipping costs alone. And the Ukrainians know this and they've been getting in the way of Russian shipping and they've been targeting some of the boats and stuff.
So the question is, can they actually get it out of Belarus, get it landed in the U.S. in a timely manner at a cost that is cost effective for the American producer? That's agricultural producers.
Steven Wilson — Beyond the shipping hurdles, Martin says it is highly unlikely Belarus even has the capacity to replace the massive volume of potash the United States currently buys from Canada, especially with their existing contracts in Asia. He says the real victims of the geopolitical gamesmanship are the American farmers who rely on affordable Canadian inputs.
Paul Martin — Further to that, I think if I'm an American farmer, I'm probably feeling a little annoyed that my president's using me as a pawn in this game. They're throwing me into the, you know, on the table. And I supported this guy, and, what's he doing? He should be trying to make my life easier, not make it more complicated.
Steven Wilson — Martin suspects this is just the beginning of the White House testing Canadian resolve and warns the U.S. president could easily turn his sights on other prairie exports like uranium or even agriculture.
Paul Martin — One that might come up, actually, nobody talks about is isoweans. So you might want to keep an eye on that. It's an interesting one.
That's baby pigs. So we hatch a lot of baby pigs here and we sell them to the Americans, to Iowa in particular, when they're just a couple months old and they finish them down there. And Manitoba does more than we do, but we do do some.
And the reason they buy them from us is we have very few farms in Saskatchewan spread over a large area. So herd health is really strong here, biosecurity. So they like to buy their commercial stocks from us, not the breeding stock, but the ones where they can finish out, take the market.
So that might be an area that he looks at next. But I'd be surprised if he did that because he doesn't have an easy replacement on that one. And not only that, he might just threaten the bacon market.
And that might not be something even the U.S. president would want to take on.
Steven Wilson — As the rhetoric heats up, a new economic forecast published by TD Economics suggests Manitoba is somewhat buffered from the initial sting of the trade war compared to its prairie neighbours. The report notes Manitoba's diverse export composition leaves it with fewer direct exposures to the hardest hit sectors. And in the energy sector south of the border, financial publications are highlighting that investors are closely evaluating specific localized projects in regions like the Williston Basin, trying to navigate the shifting high yield market amidst the broader trade volatility.
We will continue to follow the market reactions and political fallout as the trade dispute widens. I'm Steven Wilson. Thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
