The Saskatchewan Roughriders are trying to evade a dubious CFL first.
The Riders started with a 6-2 record and were battling with the Edmonton Elks for first place in the West Division as the season neared the halfway point. But after five losses in the last seven games – including three straight defeats – the playoffs are in jeopardy.
As mentioned in Sunday’s Riders All Access Report newsletter, no CFL team has ever missed the postseason when starting 6-2. That’s according to the league’s stats department. Should the Riders fail to qualify, they’ll set a new low mark for the biggest slide from early dominance. Three teams – B.C. in 1982, Winnipeg in 2014, and Edmonton in 2018 – began their campaigns 6-3 before missing out on the playoffs.
The Riders (8-7) have three games to go as they battle with B.C. (9-6), Calgary (8-8) and Winnipeg (7-8), for three spots, including a crossover to the East Division. They don’t own the tiebreaker against any of those teams, so eight wins likely won’t be enough to get them in the playoffs this year. There’s a chance nine victories won’t, either.
There’s a lot at stake here and a lot to consider. But there are three key X factors that could determine their fate as they try to avoid the biggest collaspe in CFL history.
The schedule
Working against them: The Riders couldn’t have a tougher pair of opponents to close out the season.
Next up is a home-and-home set against the CFL’s best team, the Montreal Alouettes. The last game sees them host the No. 2 Elks, the West’s best. There are certainly no pushovers there.
The post-Labour Day schedule always looked like it was going to be a gauntlet. The Riders had Winnipeg on the road, a streaking B.C. squad in Vancouver, and Calgary visiting Regina before those last three contests.
Calgary at home was the most winnable game on paper and the Riders couldn’t get the job done. Now, they face the league’s top teams with their season on the line.
The Als and Elks surely want to stick it to the Riders, too. The Als, of course, lost the Grey Cup to the Riders 11 months ago and are meeting them for the first time next Monday. The Elks, surely, would love to knock out their second-biggest rival if that chance remains on the table.
Working for them: The Alouettes and Elks have little to play for.
The Alouettes have already clinched the East Division crowd, something it seemed as though they were destined to do since, um, like Canada Day. Though it’s a little early for them to take their foot off the pedal entirely – especially with a first-round bye coming – it’s a good time to start thinking about reducing reps and providing some rest to star players.
If the Elks have first place sewn up by the season finale, it might behoove them to rest some first-team players entirely.
All this could be a huge help to the Riders’ chances to earning a pivotal win or two to close out the campaign and get over the finish line.
The roster
Working for them: The Riders, plagued by injuries for the last couple months, have slowly been getting closer to a full lineup.
Receiver Kian Schaffer-Baker and running back A.J. Ouellette have now played two games after returning from extended absences from knee injuries to add more weapons to the offence. Star defensive back Tevaughn Campbell was questionable heading into last Friday’s game against Calgary, making next Monday’s clash versus Montreal seem like a formality.
Riders coach Corey Mace said last week that receiver Sam Emilus isn’t far behind Campbell’s timeline.
There have been, and could continue to be, pivotal players added to the mix.
Working against them: Time isn’t on their side.
It’s one thing to get those players back. It’s another to expect them to go from missing between a third or half the season and be at top form.
Schaffer-Baker showed some rust in his first game back before being the best Rider on the field against Calgary. Ouellette was solid in B.C., but he struggled last week. All that’s understandable.
Provided Campbell and Emilus do in fact return, they might step right in and dominate. They’re excellent players, so that’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility.
To plan for that, however, isn’t realistic nor is it fair to them.
And there’s one more thing on the injury front: the uncertain status of renowned pass catcher KeeSean Johnson, who didn’t play late in last Friday’s game after sustaining an injury.
Mace said postgame that it “didn’t seem like it was anything crazy” and hoped whatever was ailing Johnson wouldn’t keep him out for the long term. That’s not exactly promising.
The kicking game
Working for them: The Roughriders now have an established CFL kicker on the roster.
Reacquiring Brett Lauther from the Ottawa Redblacks last week gives the Riders one of the best kickers in the league this season. It also gives them someone with not only a proven CFL track record but someone who has a feel for and understanding of booting the ball in the prairie elements.
Alex Hale’s inconsistency was one of the biggest problems the Riders faced when they were rolling. His replacement, Dawson Hodge, had two perfect games and then went 2-for-4 against Calgary.
Lauther, by comparison, has missed two field goals all season in 34 attempts. The Riders could be more competitive with a more trustworthy kicker.
Working against them: They must play well enough for the kicks to matter.
The Riders haven’t been awful over their last three games, but losing but those losses by 13, seven, and six points, respectively, easily could have been far more lopsided.
They didn’t score a touchdown in that first defeat in Winnipeg. Fourth-quarter rallies, especially against Calgary, made the scores look closer than their overall performance warranted.
If they’re going to continue to play like this, they could have the best kicker in the world and it might be irrelevant.
Now, Hodge missed back-to-back field goals before the first half against Calgary that could have narrowed the score to 17-16 before the break and changed the whole complexion of the game. Maybe Lauther makes those now and gives the team a boost.
However, the Riders simply weren’t good enough in the second half after those Hodge misses. There’s been far too much of that shoddy play of late.
