REGINA, Sask. — There’s been a bit of a lull lately in the trade dispute between Canada and the U.S., according to business commentator Paul Martin.
He believes the elections underway — both provincially in Canada, but especially the midterms in the United States happening in November — are the main focus of activity right now.
“It's interestingly quiet, isn't it?” Martin said in an interview for Harvard Media’s podcast Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
“I think the U.S. midterms are kind of stealing all the headlines, so there isn't much oxygen in Ottawa or in Washington for this conversation right now.”
With the elections underway, there seems to be a lack of urgency coming from D.C., according to Martin.
He particularly pointed to what he thought was a “very telling comment that came from Jamieson Greer, who's the U.S. trade negotiator.”
He pointed to Greer saying they are getting everything they need from Canada right now and that there's no real urgency to push any faster for a trade agreement.
“And I thought, isn't that an interesting comment? And that we're at a stalemate, and it's kind of like, ‘just move along,’ and the Americans are getting what they need from us. We've imposed some counter-tariffs on them. They've imposed some tariffs on us.
“The only industries that are really feeling it — really, Western Canada isn't seeing it much. It's mostly in Central Canada, and it's the auto industry and attendant suppliers to them. So that steel industry is feeling it down there, but it's almost like this is becoming a non-event.”
Martin believes we will have to wait until after the midterms to see if “there's some space on the agenda down there” for the U.S. to have this conversation on trade.
“I suspect it's going to be a challenge for them, too. Especially if there is a change of control in the houses down there, at least one of them, that they'll have to sort out their politics for a while.”
As for President Donald Trump, Martin said he “won't be quite as sort of preoccupied with campaigning and stuff like that that he's doing right now.”
Martin believes that Trump’s thought process around Canada is “really just about cheap shots, and there isn't much in the way of substance that either side is talking about. No doubt the negotiators are at work behind the scenes doing the minutiae, doing the detailed work, and maybe something will pop out of that, but at this point, it kind of looks like the waters have settled.”
Beyond the election, Martin points to how deeply entrenched the relationship is between Canada and the U.S. — one that he believes transcends politics or a trade dispute.
“It's so integrated, it's so well established, so deeply entrenched,” Martin said. “Families, there's a lot of relationships that go on, and we all know many Canadians who own property down there, so they spend a good chunk of the year there. I mean, there's a lot of familiarity, and that's hard to erase.”
That all carries on, Martin said, “even though, yeah, over here on the sidelines, we've got this trade dispute going on, but the deeper relationship between the two countries seems to be pretty much untouched on this … Are we still paying attention to American media? Yes. Are Canadian celebrities still a part of the American media? Yes. I mean, we haven't created those grand divides.”
As for the future, one thing Martin does see happening is a concerted effort right now by Canada to “diversify its customer list.”
Martin said that it “really is kind of the reality that the U.S. is 35 per cent of the world economy.
“So that means 65 per cent isn't, and should we be more plugged into that 65 per cent than the 35? It's hard to do, because it takes work.”
Martin also pointed to the established relationships already in place with the United States that he mentioned earlier.
“And so for us to move away from that in any concerted way is going to take a lot of effort and a lot of focus, but it doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. I mean, you should probably be cautious if you have all your eggs in one customer basket — (if) that customer goes sideways on you, you got real trouble. I mean, that's what we're seeing right now.”
