WESTERN PRODUCER — As we slowly move through fall and head toward whatever winter might have in store for us, let’s take a look back at September’s weather across the Prairies and then see if there have been any changes to the long-range winter forecasts.
September was warmer than average across the Prairies, with all the main reporting centres recording above-average mean monthly temperatures.
Regina was the warmest at 15 C, followed by Winnipeg at 14.7 C. Regina also had the largest warm anomaly, coming in 3.2 C above average.
The coolest readings were found in Alberta, with Calgary reporting a mean temperature of 11.4 C, just 0.4 C above average.
Edmonton was slightly warmer at 11.7 C, which was 1.5 C above average.
Unfortunately, station problems meant I could not obtain a September reading for Peace River because of a gap in the data.
Looking at precipitation, Manitoba and Saskatchewan saw near to well above average rainfall.
Regina was the wettest location, receiving 115 millimetres, a whopping 82 mm above average. Saskatoon, Brandon and Winnipeg each reported 90 to 95 mm, also well above average.
Alberta was the dry spot, with Edmonton receiving only about 20 mm, roughly half its average. Calgary fared a little better with 34 mm, although that was still about 11 mm below average.
Overall, September was warmer and wetter than average across much of the Prairies. Now, let’s look at the winter forecasts.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a warm, dry November, followed by near-average temperatures and continued dry conditions in December.
January is expected to be cold and snowy, with February near average. March is forecast to be slightly colder than average with well-above-average precipitation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook calls for well above average temperatures throughout winter, with near to below average precipitation in the western Prairies and near average amounts farther east.
The American Climate Forecast System model also favours well above average temperatures, particularly across the eastern and northern Prairies. It forecasts near average precipitation overall, with below average amounts in the far west and east.
The Canadian CanSIPS model calls for above-average temperatures during the first half of winter, transitioning to near to above average temperatures in the second half.
Precipitation is forecast to be below to well below average, although Saskatchewan has the best chance of seeing near-average amounts.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model also favours well above average temperatures and near to below average precipitation. Interestingly, it forecasts well above average precipitation just south of the Canadian Prairies.
So, what is my take?
As much as I would like to agree with the models pointing toward a classic El Niño winter, I am going to lean toward near average temperatures and near to slightly below average precipitation.
As you know, long-range forecasts are far from a sure thing, so we will have to wait and see how this winter’s pattern develops.
About the author
Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA in geography, specializing in climatology, from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Manitoba.
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