REGINA, Sask. — A new Abacus Data poll shows a close race between the Saskatchewan Party and NDP in Saskatchewan politics.
According to the online survey of 1,000 people conducted Oct. 5-13, the Saskatchewan Party holds a lead with 48 per cent support among decided voters, compared with 46 per cent for the NDP. Six per cent support other parties. Abacus said a comparable probability-based random sample would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll gives the Saskatchewan Party a significant lead in rural Saskatchewan — 60 to 28 per cent in the rural south and 58 to 36 per cent in the central and northern regions — as well as a lead in smaller cities at 54 to 45 per cent. But in the biggest cities, the NDP holds a considerable advantage, leading 62 to 34 per cent in Saskatoon and 54 to 41 per cent in Regina.
Curtis Brown, vice-president for Western Canada for Abacus Data, said "it's tightening. It looks like it's going to be, you know, it's competitive."
"Next week, the legislature session starts, and I think that's…going to be a very important time, I think, for both the parties in there. And yeah, seeing kind of how it breaks down… I'm not especially surprised to see that, yeah, obviously, the Sask Party still has a great deal of strength in rural Saskatchewan and a bit of an edge still in the small cities, like North Battleford and others, which I think are really important to whether it'll stay in government or not."
Support for the government also differs by age. Older voters aged 60 and up favour the Saskatchewan Party overwhelmingly, 65 to 32 per cent. In all other age categories, the NDP is ahead, including among young voters.
As for the leaders, Abacus reports views of NDP Leader Carla Beck are relatively positive, but she remains somewhat of an unknown with voters. The poll reports 48 per cent view Premier Scott Moe positively and 47 per cent view Beck positively, but Beck's net positive rating is higher, with only 16 per cent viewing her very negatively compared with 23 per cent for Moe.
One thing that stands out to Brown in the poll results is the question of whether people think it is time for a change.
According to the poll, 50 per cent of respondents expressed a desire for change. This includes 32 per cent who say the Saskatchewan Party government has done a poor job and 18 per cent who say the Saskatchewan Party has done a good job but still believe it’s time for a change. Another 31 per cent say the government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 19 per cent are unsure.
"And it's interesting, because… obviously, you're going to have people who think that it's time for the Sask Party to go, and a lot of those people are probably in the NDP camp already. But you do have this one in five who, I mean, yeah, they may be Sask Party supporters, or they generally are happy with the party — think they've done a good job in government over nearly two decades now. And the feeling that, yeah… maybe it has been too long, maybe it is time for a change."
As for the major issues, Abacus finds that the cost of living, followed by health care, remain the two most prominent concerns. The cost of living ranks highest at 63 per cent, with health care second at 42 per cent and housing affordability a distant third at 27 per cent.
Brown said the cost of living has come up as a major issue in Abacus polling nationwide. "So it's no surprise that that's a major concern in Saskatchewan."
Also not a surprise is the interest in the health-care issue. He said the state of health care, especially at the provincial level, is always "a major thing as well, especially for older voters — that's something that we see quite often."
But when it comes to who would do the best on the cost-of-living issue, Moe or Beck, it is a wash.
"I'm not hugely surprised by this, but neither of them really, you know, owns the cost of living issue. Like, you know, when we ask people which one's going to do the most to make life more affordable, it was essentially a tie, about three in ten each." Other responses were either "neither of them," or "they don't know," he said.
Brown also pointed to people seeing Premier Moe as stronger on "the overall plan for the economy, the overall plan for dealing with Ottawa and standing up for Saskatchewan's interests." But for the NDP and Beck, "they see her as being much more likely to, you know, do a better job of improving health care."
Abacus is planning to conduct more polling on Saskatchewan politics on a regular basis, with Brown saying the company will be polling every quarter in Saskatchewan to get a better sense of what's happening on the various issues.
