The sense ahead of the CFL Western Semi-Final appears to be a relatively easy victory for the B.C. Lions.
It’s easy to see why, of course. The Lions were one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the campaign, overcoming their slow start to finish with 10-8 victory and second place in the West Division.
Then there are the two convincing wins over the Riders in their two meetings at B.C. Place this season, the second of which was as dominant a showing as a team has had against the Green and White this season.
But TSN play-by-play caller Marshall Ferguson isn’t so sure, and he joined Barney Shynkaruk on the SportsCage on Thursday afternoon to spell out why he thinks the Lions being a six-point favourite might be off the mark.
“I understand why they set the line the way they do, and they're obviously very successful, but I think this is a field-goal game,” Ferguson said, adding that the potential for a blowout game in either direction is low simply because of the calibre of the teams and how well their defences are capable of playing under B.C.’s Mike Benevides and Saskatchewan’s Josh Bell.
“It's a huge matchup that will prove a lot,” Ferguson said. “For Saskatchewan, to me the whole playoff run honestly comes down to who is going to step up in a big moment and say, ‘We really don't want to bow in the playoffs after being Grey Cup champions’. It's somebody who's going to step up in that moment and decide that they are not going to get sent into the offseason because they have too much pride in what they're doing.”
Ferguson isn’t the only prognosticator taking that position, as it was echoed by Riders Plaza of Honour member Scott Schultz in his Midweek Soundoff segment on Wednesday.
“I don't know who that (player will be), but when I see that point spread, it just comes to mind where it's like it could be any positional group, any of the three sides of the ball,” Ferguson continued. “I look forward to watching and figuring out with everybody else who exactly that is. It might be a tough one to answer.”
Ferguson was also happy to see the way the playoff picture in the West Division shook out, given that he feels B.C. and Saskatchewan offer a better look as overall teams for the postseason.
“As much as I enjoyed watching Calgary play this year, it feels like the right teams made the postseason,” he said. “Vernon Adams Jr. had this incredible stat line, but Nathan Rourke and his crew and Trevor Harris and his crew, I think are more valuable to the CFL playoff picture in 2026 than the Calgary Stampeders would have been.
“It's pretty special stuff to see two teams that are of this caliber come together in a West Semi-Final.”
A major reason Ferguson thinks things will be closer than expected is Harris and his history of success in the latter stages of the season.
“I've seen him in the playoffs so many times, especially in the divisional semifinal round when he was in the East, and the way that he can control the temperament of a game is really impressive,” he said. “Trevor has the ability to feel what the game needs in the playoffs, understand the opponent, dissect them in a scientific manner, which allows him to execute in an almost inhuman way.”
Ferguson figures that if Harris finds a way to put together a game where he hits the high range in quarterback rating, there’s little question the Lions will be in trouble, especially if he does so while taking care of the ball.
“Trevor might go 26-for-28 with one tipped pass and one interception, and if that interception doesn't turn into points on the board for the other team, then the Roughriders look pretty good in my mind,” Ferguson said.
“I have a lot of respect for the way that he carries himself in the playoffs. I think it's valuable, and I think the way that he is able to change the dynamic of the entire game from how he executes in such a scientific way is a total game changer in the CFL playoffs.”
The Rider Broadcast Network will have all the action from the Western Semi-Final beginning with the pre-game show at 11:30 a.m. Dave Thomas and crew will get listeners set up for the game, and he’ll then join Luc Mullinder with the game call at kickoff at 2:30 p.m.
