REGINA, Sask. — As Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections, we explore the renewed push for the Keystone XL pipeline route, track the contradictory messaging between Washington and Ottawa, and speak with Saskatchewan Trade and Export Development Minister Warren Kaeding on how the province is navigating the geopolitical turmoil.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson.
As millions of Americans head to the polls today for the United States midterm elections, a potential breakthrough in the cross-border trade dispute is sending shockwaves through the North American energy sector.
Over the weekend, United States President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Ottawa are very close to reaching a trade agreement.
The president claims the two nations have the concept of a very good deal that would drop all tariffs on Canadian agricultural products in exchange for massive energy concessions.
Specifically, Trump claims the deal includes the revival of the Keystone XL pipeline.
Trump told reporters that Canada is going to build the pipeline and pay for all of it.
The announcement triggered an immediate rally in the Canadian energy sector, with shares of SouthBow Corporation surging on the news.
While the president specifically referred to the revival of Keystone XL, the owner of the pipeline network, SouthBow, is currently working on getting approvals for the Prairie Connector Bridger project.
That proposed network uses part of the initial route of the Keystone project to move 550,000 barrels of Alberta crude per day south.
However, energy analysts warn the project still faces immense hurdles.
Even if a trade pact is signed, they point out the pipeline would still require strict regulatory approvals in Montana and Wyoming and comes with heavy construction costs in the $2-3 billion range.
Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is actively cooling expectations.
While Carney confirmed the two leaders had a good conversation, the prime minister explicitly did not commit to financing the pipeline or yielding to Washington's demands.
Carney says Ottawa is prepared to wait until an agreement suits Canadian interests and respects Canadian sovereignty.
The prime minister's refusal to rush a deal is drawing fierce pushback at home.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre attacked the prime minister yesterday, saying Canadians can't afford to wait and demanding Carney put the big talk in the past and deliver real results.
The Western Business Coalition is also urging Ottawa to focus on internal regulatory reforms to protect prairie supply chains, warning the government not to rely entirely on a volatile American president.
Despite the political contradictions, Saskatchewan's Minister of Trade and Export Development, Warren Kaeding, says any movement on a southern pipeline is a win for the prairies.
Warren Kaeding — Well, I think any pipeline is important to our oil sector here in the province, so certainly Keystone has been something that we've focused on pretty well from its time of origin. So we're very excited that it's back being discussed on literally both sides of the border. I think any time we've got an additional outlet to move oil out of Saskatchewan is certainly going to enhance our industry, it's going to allow us to get to the production goals that we've set for our producers here, and really gives that sector an opportunity to increase and expand.
Steven Wilson — Kaeding says the provincial government will continue pushing for open trade, regardless of how today's midterm elections shake out.
Warren Kaeding — Regardless of who wins or who's got majority, we just need to make sure that we've got the best possible relationship with one of our biggest trading partners.
I don't think it really makes a difference to what party's in power.
We certainly have a lot of things that we want to have accomplished here in Canada.
We talk about our very integrated marketplace that we've got here, whether it's oil and gas, it's potash, it's agriculture, food products.
It's going to be the same message, regardless of who's on the other side of the border.
Steven Wilson — When asked what the province hopes to see in a finalized trade pact with Washington, Kaeding says the answer is simple.
Warren Kaeding — Well, I think a good trade deal is one that supports our industry and supports those that are buying the products on the other end.
So I'd say we've always been on record that we'd love it to be a tariff-free open trade deal.
We'll continue to go down that path, but we want what's best for our producers, our manufacturers here, and we just want to be able to sell more product into the U.S.
Steven Wilson — While eyes are locked on Washington, the province is also dealing with friction in Asia.
An agreement allowing the export of Canadian canola into the Chinese market is set to expire in two months.
Kaeding says following recent trips to China and India, he is confident the federal government will secure an extension to protect the agriculture sector.
Tomorrow we'll have full reaction to the results of the United States midterm elections and what they mean for the future of the trade dispute. I'm Steven Wilson. Thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
Listen weekdays at 9 a.m. on 620 CKRM and GX94 for new installments of Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
