There has been some good news in agriculture in recent weeks that hasn’t received a lot of attention.
Railway performance has been stellar in recent weeks. As of its November 16 report, the Ag Transport Coalition was reporting six straight weeks where the railways had supplied more than 90 per cent of the railcars ordered by shippers. Recently, performance has been in the high 90s.
Of course, we haven’t had a bunch of snow and cold weather yet. That will be the test in the weeks to come.
Last winter, order fulfilment was below 85 per cent for 26 straight weeks with order fulfilment one week dipping to just 31 per cent. Hopefully, we won’t see a repeat of those problems.
In addition to being favourable for grain movement, the warm, dry fall has facilitated herbicide applications, bale hauling and moving cattle in from pasture. However, much of the western side of the Canadian prairies does need rain.
Fertilizer prices also have a glimmer of good news. Prices are still high, but urea (46-0-0) has trended downwards in recent weeks. Through the summer and early fall, urea was typically in the $850 a tonne range. Prices are now under $800.
That’s considerably higher than last year at this time, but at least prices have moved in the right direction. Some producers who had been holding off on purchases are now entering the market. It would be great to know if prices are going to continue dropping, but alas that seems hard to predict. Some analysts are saying prices will go back up.
Unfortunately, phosphate prices are sky-high and not showing signs of weakening. With prices of around $1,300 a tonne, producers won’t buy any more phosphate than they have to.
Perhaps the biggest good news story is the amazing price of cattle. Although prices dipped a bit due to the drop in U.S. future prices, cow-calf producers are getting calf cheques no one could have imagined just a few short years ago.
