REGINA – It seems like not a week has gone by lately without some new trade or tariff obstacle being thrown at Saskatchewan.
One week it is canola tariffs from China; another it is yellow peas duties from India. Now, this past week, it is threats to the potash industry that are back at the forefront.
President Donald Trump waded in on Dec. 8 with a threat to impose “very severe tariffs” on fertilizer from Canada. He indicated the rationale was to bolster production in the USA.
Such a tariff, if carried out, would impact Saskatchewan’s potash mining sector. But it is not the first time Saskatchewan has faced such a threat from the White House.
Earlier in 2025, Trump had threatened a 25 per cent tariff on fertilizer, but that idea was met with blowback from farming states such as Iowa, where Republican Sen. Charles Grassley lobbied against it. The argument was that the tariffs would raise prices for producers.
Trump ultimately backed down and reduced the tariff to 10 per cent, but with the President now musing about imposing “severe” tariffs, the concerns are back on.
Trump's latest threats came just a day before the Saskatchewan and Regina Chambers of Commerce held what turned out to be a timely Tariffs and Trade Forum at the Conexus Arts Centre on Dec. 9, where business and industry leaders gathered to hear speakers on the ongoing trade situation.
Premier Scott Moe spoke at that event and his message there, and in speaking to reporters later in the week, was about maintaining a "stay calm" approach.
“Those comments, I think certainly we need to be concerned about,” Moe said to reporters Thursday.
“However, we also need to be very level in our approach. And how we are engaging not only with the U.S., but with other countries, and understand that, you know, things that we might say might have an impact on our relationship with the U.S. directly, but they might also have an indirect impact on our relationship with other trading partners around the world as well.
“And that's why I said, and I've said this many times, I think it was [Prime Minister] Jean Chrétien actually that said it first, but you do take the president very seriously, but don't always take him literally.”
As for Trump’s contention that fertilizer or potash production could relocate to the USA, Moe took issue with that notion.
”You don't just build a potash mine overnight,” Moe said, pointing to the province’s experience with K + S, Nutrien, Mosaic and BHP all either building or expanding their mines. He also pointed to Saskatchewan already providing 35 per cent of potash to the USA.
“So there's real challenges, I think, in the potash conversation with the statement that if you increase the tariffs, you'll produce more at home. And so, you know, I'm confident that any movement in the tariff space on potash would do nothing but simply increase the cost for American farmers, and I don't think that's the goal of the President.”
Moe’s comments on potash came following a cabinet shuffle on Dec. 11 that saw Minister Warren Kaeding stay put in the Trade and Export Development portfolio, as well as the return of David Marit to the Agriculture portfolio that he held before the 2024 election. Those signalled from the premier a desire for stability and experience in cabinet roles important to the trade issue.
The premier acknowledged the emergence of the tariffs issue had changed the dynamic since the last time he put a cabinet together, with the 2024 provincial vote having taken place just prior to Trump winning back the U.S. presidency.
“No, it's changing quickly. And, you know, our three largest markets in the world, the United States of America, China, and India, all have, you know, to some degree, tariffs on certain products. And this is the challenging world that we live in, in the short term.”
Moe said he was “hopeful in the medium to long term” that Saskatchewan will be positioned very well in all of those markets and many others.
“But the challenge is here, and it's here right now. And that may be part of the decision in leaving some of the ministers in some of the files and not even making an even more significant change. You know, Minister Kaeding has very much been engaging not just with our U.S. counterparts, but at every level of government, but engaging with, you know, other governments and our exporters from Saskatchewan that are exporting product around the world. He has a tall order in front of him in…enabling and opening up, as I have been attempting to do, opening up avenues for Canada to be successful in their negotiations, whether it be with the U.S., China, or India.
“And at the end of the day, that's what we want, and that's what we're trying to do, is support our federal government in actually finding some success in this trade space, because it is, you know, ever-changing.”
Beck alarmed at Trump comments
In Saskatoon on Tuesday, Opposition Leader Carla Beck made known she was alarmed at the latest comments from Trump, coming only weeks after Premier Scott Moe had met US officials on the tariff and trade issue including members of the Trump cabinet.
“I think it’s just more evidence that we cannot be reliant on this unreliable, trading partner any longer,” Beck told reporters.
“You know I would love to see the decision to have Nutrien move their port facility to the US to reconsider moving that back into Canada. We’re incredibly proud of the potash industry, that role that it plays in this province, what it does to increase food product production in the United States — one of one of our biggest customers. It seems the President of the United States doesn’t understand that. I think it should add urgency to all of us again to not be complacent to make sure that we’re actually increasing that port capacity here in Canada so we can diversify markets we can better control.
Beck also accused Moe as seeming to suggest that “playing footsie” and “playing nice is going to get to get us where we need to go.”
“I’m not seeing evidence of that. I’m not saying we go pick a fight, but the fight came to us and we bloody well better understand it and do everything we can to ensure that we can actually get that potash, let alone oil, gas, grain to market and to be able to control this so we are not at the mercy of whatever the President of the United States puts on Truth Social.”
– With files from Jon Perez.
