There is a big oversupply of canaryseed in Saskatchewan. Canadian production is estimated at 235-thousand tonnes, according to Statistics Canada.
That big crop is folding into last year's carryover, according to grain market analyst with Left Field Commodity Research Chuck Penner.
Penner also provided market outlooks for canola and pulse crops.
"We have this bigger crop, this biggest crop since we've had since 04-05, and we're also carrying in some larger supplies. So total supplies closer to 320,000 tons. So that's the biggest that we've had in many, many years. I'd have to go back and see that may actually be a record supplies."
The stocks-to-use chart paints a bleak picture for canaryseed prices. Stocks are over 100 per cent, meaning there is enough supply to meet not only this year's demand but "next year's demand without even growing a '26 crop", said Penner.
"It's an indication that we are looking at a situation that's going to take a couple of years to try and resolve and bring that back down to more reasonable levels."
Penner is making a cautious estimate of 130-thousand tonnes of canaryseed exports, with industry estimates as high as 150-thousand tonnes.
"When canary seed is needed for an export shipment, mostly to Mexico, but some other movement as well too, it can be brought in in a bit of a hurry and then it kind of dies down again, so you have these spikes in movement. The year-to-date pace though is close to average, close to last year and so we're, in spite of all the noise on this chart, the overall movement so far is steady."
Canaryseed can be stored for many years, so farmers are used to sitting on supplies if needed.
"There's a certain amount of canary seed that's available at 20 cents a pound, and probably more that's available at 25 and then at 30. But some of it may not be available until 40 cents a pound and so, as we know, that's kind of the pattern of marketing the crop and so at various price levels, those supplies become available."
All of this points to a large reduction in canaryseed area, Penner estimates it could be 25 per cent.
(With files from Neil Billinger, CJWW)
