Canadian farmers grew a record wheat crop in 2025, but production was also higher is several countries this year.
Chuck Penner with LeftField Commodity Research says there have been brisk wheat exports early in the crop year and was cautious in saying there could be another record set.
"Is it possible that we could hit 24 million tons of exports? Yeah, that's possible. So far that's in the cards, but we don't want to get too ahead of ourselves. Maybe that's the way to put it."
Penner says there is wheat demand based on how U.S. wheat futures have stayed flat even with the increase in global supplies.
There are signs that wheat and corn crops in China may have been impacted by weather both on production and quality, he said..
While China has tariffs on Canadian canola and yellow peas, there are no restrictions on wheat.
"When we look at some of the prices for wheat, corn, and barley in China, we're seeing this rebound in their domestic corn prices. They've just finished harvest and already corn prices are coming back and wheat prices are firming up as well, too. So it suggests that supply wise in China, things aren't as great."
Penner concluded there are positive signals in the wheat market with record Canadian supplies and good export movement and if it will continue depends on any big weather threats in the future.
"We've seen a number of years in a row without a real glitch in terms of production, you know, a little bit here or there. But does that mean that we're due for something like that? I don't know that I quite fall into that camp, but, you know, it's still always a possibility."
Penner's remarks were made during a presentation last week, where he also gave market outlooks for canola, pulse crops, and canaryseed.
(With files from Neil Billinger, CJWW)
