SASKATOON — As western separatist movements gain renewed attention in Alberta and Saskatchewan, political observers say deep structural barriers make a Quebec-style break unlikely, for now.
Two political observers offered their take on Western separatism, which has resurfaced in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The potential for western provinces to secede from Canada has become a hot-button topic, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump called for the country to become the 51st state last year, sparking debates between pro-independence groups and those who want to remain Canadian.
Prosperity Project groups were established in B.C., where the province's northern part is more active, as well as in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Saskatchewan Prosperity Project (SPP), on its Facebook page, which has close to 9,000 members, said it is a non-profit, non-governmental, non-partisan organization whose mission is to educate the province about the need to become an independent nation.
SPP, like its counterpart in Alberta, is pushing for independence and has been holding town hall meetings across the province since December, with proponents wanting Saskatchewan to “become a self-governing free nation to ensure a future of prosperity, freedom and a safe country for all of Saskatchewanians and our children.”
Daniel Westlake, a former assistant professor in the University of Saskatchewan’s Department of Political Studies who is now with Simon Fraser University’s School of Public Safety, said that while policy grievances exist across the Prairies, separatist movements require something deeper to succeed — such as a broad, shared and mutually exclusive sense of identity — a condition he believes is largely absent in Western Canada.
“There is a residual Western alienation feeling in the interior that dates back to when the Reform Party was a major player in the province in federal politics, but that's largely absent from the Lower Mainland [Vancouver and surrounding area] and Victoria, and that's where a large share of the population is. I've seen a bit about the Saskatchewan and Alberta Prosperity Projects, but almost nothing about the B.C. version. For various reasons, I think the western separatist movement gets a lot less traction in B.C. than in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” said Westlake.
He added that for separatist movements to be successful, they need more than policy grievances, as these rarely sustain a secessionist project. Rather, they need a distinct sense of nationhood and a durable narrative — something Alberta and Saskatchewan, he believes, both lack. He cited Quebec’s separatist referenda as the closest example.
Dr. Martin Gaal, a faculty member in the Department of Political Studies at the University of Saskatchewan, added that some in Alberta’s separatist movement, including APP, see U.S. interest only as a possible means to continue their push for independence, and that their leaders reportedly met with senior U.S. officials, including at the White House. This may cause problems for some separatists who want no ties with the U.S.
“They are seeking $500 billion in credit to fund an independent Alberta or AlbertaCanada. On the other hand, the U.S. connection could alienate ma, thereby undermining Alberta's sovereignty. Still, they do not want to join or be dependent on the U.S. and therefore undermine their separatist agenda. However, there is a bigger question here: is the U.S. being opportunistic? In other words, by supporting separatists and infringing on Canadian sovereignty, have the Americans distracted or divided Canada, making us less focused or united on CUSMA negotiations or other points of contention?” questioned Gaal.
He also described Trump’s rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state and the need for Greenland for national security purposes as extreme. However, he said it makes more sense to view recent decisions through the lens of a new power-based international order, with some arguing the post-1945 rule-based international order is under threat or even over.
“If so, it is likely to be replaced by a multi-polar, power-based system. In this scenario, the world will increasingly be divided into spheres of influence. The U.S. sphere of influence would be the Western Hemisphere. Control, either direct or indirect, of Canada, Greenland and Venezuela has advantages to the U.S. It allows the U.S. to control access to the Arctic for security and resource extraction, as well as transportation through the Northwest Passage,” added Gaal.
Westlake said that although Alberta and Saskatchewan undeniably possess distinct political cultures — often characterized by resource-based economies, fiscal conservatism and skepticism toward federal intervention — most residents appear to see provincial and Canadian identities as overlapping rather than mutually exclusive, based on the results of a 2025 Confederation of Tomorrow survey that showed attachment to Canada remains high across the country.
Nationally, based on the 2025 Environics Institute Study Confederation of Tomorrow poll, 87 per cent of Canadians say they feel very or somewhat attached to the country, with 55 per cent describing themselves as “very attached.” Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario’s attachment to Canada is among the strongest in the country, in contrast to Quebec, which stands out as the only province where provincial attachment significantly exceeds national attachment.
Attachment to Canada in Alberta and Saskatchewan remains high at 60 per cent, compared to just 36 per cent in Quebec. Residents in Alberta and Saskatchewan who identify with their province first are only 18 and 19 per cent, respectively, compared to Quebec’s 51 per cent.
“None of this is to say that Alberta and Saskatchewan don't have distinct identities. There's consistent evidence that they do. However, it's not clear that people see an Albertan or Saskatchewan identity as mutually exclusive of a Canadian identity, as Quebec nationalists might see a Quebecois identity as mutually exclusive of a Canadian identity. That's a big hurdle for any separatist movement. The caveat is that elites may mobilize people around a distinctive identity, thereby increasing support for separatists. Still, I think we've got a long way to go before that happens in either province,” said Westlake.
He also believes Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Danielle Smith are navigating a tricky situation, since both parties' bases include supporters of separatist movements. He said separatists represent only a small portion of Saskatchewan and Alberta, but they are strong supporters of the Saskatchewan Party and the United Conservative Party.
“I don't think either premier wants to come out as explicitly supportive of separatism because of the opinion dynamics, but they also want to keep their more separatist-sympathetic voters from jumping to an upstart party. It is worth noting here that both parties have experienced vote splitting: Alberta in 2015 between the Wildrose Alliance and Saskatchewan in the 1990s between the Liberals and the [Progressive Conservative]. This might make both worried about challenges on their right flank. [B.C. Premier David] Eby doesn't have to worry about these same dynamics and so has a much freer hand politically on these issues,” Westlake said.
